ECO Newsletter

Now that the new IPCC compendium has been worked on by the world’s leading climate scientists and published for all to see: What conclusions should countries draw from it? How about the need to phase out fossil fuels ASAP, starting today?

In the next two days, a Structured Expert Dialogue will assess the adequacy of the long-term global goal (i.e. keeping global warming below 2°C), possible strengthening of the goal to 1.5°C (yes please!), and the overall progress made towards achieving the goal.

On Tuesday, IPCC experts will bring in the fresh science from the Fifth Assessment Report (AR5), while on Wednesday UNEP, IEA, FAO and others will present their analysis on the matter.

A realistic understanding of where we’re heading and where we should be going to avoid catastrophic impacts is fundamental for negotiating a successful deal in Paris. Therefore ECO is pleased to present this special issue on the future of our climate as assessed by the world’s review panel, the IPCC.

There are many who consider a 2°C limit for global temperature rise to be an unacceptable climate risk. For them it’s « 1.5°C to stay alive, » and the new IPCC report shows that they have a serious point.

The IPCC’s newly updated « Reasons for Concern » indicators (sometimes called « the burning embers, » refers to a chart showing increasing risk for the key indicators in yellow, orange and red colors) show that 2 or even 3 out of 5 key risks would could be at dangerous levels with 2°C warming.

The risks play out most at a regional scale, so let’s have a look at what could happen with just 2°C warming globally (recognising that warming also varies by region):

For Africa, of 9 key regional risks, 8 pose medium or higher risk with 2°C warming, even with high levels of adaptation. We’re talking fundamentals like water stress, reduced food production and the spread of diseases.

For Small Island States, highly vulnerable to sea-level rise and high-water events, and dependent on ocean ecosystems, 2°C would be a disaster.

For Asia, risks of catastrophic flooding and lethal heatwaves would be in the medium or high range even with high levels of adaptation.
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Ok, so we have a long-term goal of keeping global warming below 2°C/1.5°C, but what does this mean in reality? Enter the IPCC AR5 cumulative emissions budgets! This is the maximum amount of tons of CO2 the atmosphere can take before crossing these limits.

According to the AR5, after 2010 we can only emit an additional 1,000 billion tons (Gt) of CO2 into our atmosphere if we want a higher than 66% likelihood of limiting global warming to below 2°C. To keep warming below 1.5°C the remaining carbon budget is consequently smaller.

Since 2010 we have already spent about a tenth of this budget. Oops! Freezing our annual global emissions to current levels would use up the remaining budget completely in just 25 years, and almost one third of it would be gone by 2020. With current growing emissions we’ll have used up our budget even sooner.

What does it mean? It means that peaking and starting the decline in emissions soon is fundamental for achieving the long-term goal.

It also means we’re no longer in the business of managing emissions. We have to phase them out to zero, and it needs to happen fast. If you thought we had time until the end of the century, you’ve misunderstood the IPCC’s conclusions.
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Australia, Austria, Belgium, Ireland, Iceland, Greece, Portugal and the European Union are the An-nex 2 Parties yet to make their pledges to the Green Climate Fund. ECO notes the same is true for Poland, Hungary and a few others. Five years ago, developed countries had not only promised to set up the fund but, also fill it. ECO, optimistic as ever, is convinced that all of them know rather well how much in these negotiations depends on the GCF getting off to a good start. They will not let us down.

ECO stands ready to welcome any further and ambitious pledges, so that at least the lower threshold of the unofficial US$10-15 billion target range can be crossed here in Lima. If this comes with an explicit understanding that the GCF will grow bigger over time, we have taken the first step. Parties could then focus on the second, third and fourth steps, including ministers agreeing to craft a 2020 roadmap that spells out how developed countries are going to fulfill their $100bn promise, and to anchor climate finance in the new agreement, with collective targets and individual commitments as part of wealthy countries’ fair share in the global effort.