Category: Previous Issues Articles

Wiki ya 2 ya tukio hili la COP inapozidi kupamba moto, jambo moja liko wazi – ni wakati wa kufikiria jinsi ya kufanya nchi mwenyeji na urais wa COP (na hapana, sio sawa kila wakati) kufanya kile ambacho Mkataba wa Paris unawalazimisha kufanya: kuheshimu kikamilifu haki za binadamu na kuhakikisha kuwepo kwa uwazi na uwazi wa kiraia.

Wakati Azimio la Kimataifa la Haki za Kibinadamu limekuwepo kwa miaka 75, baadhi ya Marais walionekana kuhitaji ukumbusho: mwezi Juni, UNFCCC ilikariri kwamba mikutano yake inapaswa kuitishwa mahali ambapo haki za binadamu na uhuru wa kimsingi unakuzwa na kulindwa. Kanuni moja ya msingi sana ni kufanya makubaliano ya nchi mwenyeji (HCA) kwa COPs yapatikane hadharani. ECO imetafuta na kutafuta moja ya COP28, kutoka pembe za B6 hadi basement ya B1: haipatikani popote. UNFCCC inaiambia ECO kwamba inaweza kuombwa kutoka kwa mfumo wa Mkataba wa Umoja wa Mataifa, lakini si jinsi hilo linaweza kufanywa. Ni kama kujaribu kupata B7 bila barabara ya matofali ya manjano.

Sote tunajua kwa sasa kwamba hakuwezi kuwa na haki ya hali ya hewa bila haki za binadamu, na hatuwezi kuwa na Urais wa COP unaozunguka kukiuka haki za msingi za binadamu. Kwa hivyo tunahitaji nini kwa COP ijayo kurudisha imani katika mchakato huo, na kuhakikisha tunapata hatua ya hali ya hewa tunayohitaji?
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ECO, kama mhudumu wa maktaba aliye na uzoefu na rafu za hadithi za hali ya hewa, inakumbuka kila kitu tangu mwanzo wake mnamo 1972 na onyesho la kwanza la UNFCCC lililojaa nyota katika mkutano wa 1992 wa Rio. Katika sakata hii ya muda mrefu, Ufalme wa Saudi Arabia (KSA) mara nyingi umetajwa kama mkosaji, maarufu kwa kusuka mitandao ya habari potofu, kuzuia njia ya maendeleo ya hali ya hewa, na kupigania utumiaji usio na kikomo wa nishati ya mafuta, haswa mafuta. Ikiwa na asilimia 20 ya akiba ya mafuta duniani, jukumu la KSA lilikuwa sawa na joka kutunza hazina yake, huku matumizi yao yakitishia bajeti yetu ya pamoja ya kaboni kwa lengo la 1.5°C.

Mbele ya 2019, huko COP huko Madrid, tukio liliwekwa kwa wakati wa kilele na ripoti ya msingi ya IPCC ya 1.5°C. Walakini, KSA, ambayo imekuwa na shaka, ilipuuza hati hii muhimu ya kisayansi kama “makubaliano ya muungwana,” ambayo inadhoofisha msingi wake katika mazungumzo ya hali ya hewa. Kwa historia ya kuongeza uzalishaji wa CO2 kutoka tani 10 hadi 18 kwa kila mtu kati ya 1998 na 2022, msimamo wa KSA umekuwa changamoto ya mara kwa mara kwa korasi ya makubaliano ya kisayansi – hadithi ya ECO imeandika kwa bidii kwa miongo kadhaa.
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Hapa kuna mazoezi ya kufurahisha kwa kila mtu kujaribu leo: jaribu kupumua haraka sana kwa dakika 1, kana kwamba itabidi uchukue oksijeni yote unayohitaji kwa dakika 5 zinazofuata, kisha uache kupumua kabisa kwa dakika 5 zilizobaki. NENDA!

Ilifanya kazi? Pengine si… ECO inaiita mbinu ya kupumua ya “gramu-dakika”, kipimo cha kibunifu cha ulaji wa oksijeni. Imechochewa na mbinu ya uhasibu ya “tani ya mwaka” ambayo baadhi ya Wanachama wanajaribu kurejesha chini ya Kifungu cha 6, na ambayo inajaribu kupima manufaa ya hifadhi ya kaboni ya muda mfupi. Madai ni kwamba kuhifadhi 300tCO2 kwa mwaka 1 kutazingatiwa kuwa sawa na kuhifadhi 1tCO2e kwa miaka 300. Ikiwa mbinu ya kupumua ya ECO inakufanya ushindwe kupumua, unaweza kuhusiana na jinsi sayari inavyohisi kuhusu uhasibu wa mwaka wa tani.

“Huu ni ujinga,” unasema? ECO inakubali. Au tuseme, sio kisayansi. Kumekuwa na ripoti nyingi kuhusu mapungufu ya uhasibu wa mwaka wa tani pamoja na mawasilisho ya kina kwa Bodi ya Usimamizi ya 6.4, ambayo ilisababisha SB kutenga “tonne-year” kando. Baadhi ya nchi sasa zinatoa wito wa kurejeshwa kwake – ECO inadhani inapaswa kukaa pale ambapo SB iliiacha.

(Usijaribu hili nyumbani! Majaribio ya kufanya zoezi la kupumua kwa dakika ya gramu ni kwa hatari yako mwenyewe. ECO haikubali dhima yoyote kwa wajumbe wanaopita katika mchakato wa kujaribu hili kwa ajili ya kuthibitisha maoni yao.)

ECO ina habari za kusisimua kwa ajili yako. Tunajua kila mtu amekuwa akingojea bila subira matokeo ya Kielezo cha Utendaji Kazi cha Mabadiliko ya Tabianchi (CCPI) ya mwaka huu, chombo cha kuwezesha uwazi katika sera ya kitaifa na kimataifa ya hali ya hewa, na hatimaye imefika! Katika toleo lake la 19, CCPI inatathmini utendaji wa kukabiliana na hali ya hewa wa nchi 63 na EU, ikijumuisha zaidi ya 90% ya uzalishaji wa GHG duniani. Zaidi ya wataalam 450 wa hali ya hewa wametathmini sera za hali ya hewa za nchi hizi. ECO inashangaa kuripoti kwamba baada ya muda huu wote hakuna nchi inayofanya vya kutosha kuzuia mabadiliko ya hali ya hewa hatari! Safu za ‘tatu bora’ zinaendelea kubaki tupu mwaka huu.

Si sadfa kwamba nchi nyingi zinazofanya vibaya zinategemea sana nishati za mafuta, kwa ajili ya uzalishaji na matumizi. Saudi Arabia (nafasi ya 67 na ya mwisho) – tunakutazama hasa! Na Kanada (ya 62), Japani (ya 58), Marekani (ya 57), na Australia (ya 50) – usifikirie kuwa tunakusahau. Hiki hapa ni kidokezo cha kipekee cha ECO: ikiwa unataka kupandisha daraja, ni wakati wa kuondoa nishati ya visukuku! Nishati ya kisukuku ni mbaya kwa hali ya hewa na kiwango chako cha CCPI.
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“Kutokana na kupanda kwa viwango vya riba, ulipaji wa deni la Afrika utapanda hadi dola za Marekani bilioni 62 mwaka huu, hadi asilimia 35 kutoka 2022.” Matamshi haya ya Rais wa Kenya William Ruto katika Mkutano wa Kilele wa Hali ya Hewa wa Afrika mjini Nairobi yaliangazia vizuizi vya wazi vya uwezo wa nchi kukabiliana na mabadiliko ya hali ya hewa kutokana na mizigo ya kifedha.

“Kama hutatatua suala la madeni, huwezi kutatua suala la hali ya hewa,” Ruto aliendelea.

Wasiwasi sawa na huo ulionyeshwa kwenye COP28 wakati wa Mazungumzo ya Mawaziri ya Ngazi ya Juu na kuelezwa na wapatanishi wa nchi zinazoendelea katika Kamati ya Kudumu ya Fedha, Fedha za Muda Mrefu, na Malengo Mapya ya Pamoja yaliyohakikishwa (NCQG).

Katika ripoti ya hivi majuzi ya OECD, ECO iligundua kuwa mikopo iliwakilisha zaidi ya theluthi mbili ya fedha za hali ya hewa ya umma katika 2021 wakati ruzuku ilichangia chini ya asilimia 30 ($ 20.1 bilioni). Kulingana na Ripoti ya Kivuli ya Oxfam, asilimia 31 ya fedha za hali ya hewa zilitolewa kama mikopo ya masharti nafuu na kama asilimia 42 ilikuwa mikopo isiyo ya masharti nafuu mnamo 2019-2020. Kama mkopo wa nyumba, mikopo ya hali ya hewa inakusudiwa kulipwa kwa viwango vya riba.
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Mshindi wa kwanza – Urusi

Urusi inaonekana kupotea… au angalau kuchanganyikiwa kuhusu kwa nini sote tuko Dubai, huku wakiendelea kugonga mikataba ya mafuta badala ya kutoa ahadi za maana za hali ya hewa. Wakati dunia inazingatia mazungumzo ya hali ya hewa, Putin alionyesha uso wake katika UAE kwa sababu zote zisizo sahihi; kujadili makubaliano mapya ya mafuta na UAE na Saudi Arabia. Kwa urahisi kwake, hatuko katika mojawapo ya nchi 100 zinazotambua hati ya kukamatwa iliyotolewa na Mahakama ya Kimataifa ya Uhalifu.

Urusi inajulikana kwa wachezaji wake wenye ujuzi wa chess, lakini, tuseme ukweli, Putin sio Anatoly Karpov. Katika nchi ambayo karibu nusu ya bajeti ya shirikisho inatokana na mapato yanayotokana na nishati ya mafuta, huku 40% ikitengwa kufadhili vita vya Ukrainia na migogoro mingine ya kivita duniani kote, anatumia nishati ya kisukuku kama sehemu muhimu katika mechi ya kijiografia na kisiasa, akiweka silaha zao kwa silaha. athari mbaya kwa hali ya hewa. Upinzani wa Urusi kwa lugha ya kutokomeza katika COP28 unasukumwa na msukumo wa ubinafsi wa kupata faida kwa gharama ya watu na hali ya hewa. Uchunguzi wao wa lengo la Nishati Mbadala ya Tripling unadhoofisha zaidi mazungumzo. Hivi sivyo unavyotekeleza Gambit ya Malkia.

Kwa hivyo, Urusi imetunukiwa tuzo ya Kisukuku cha Siku kwa kuweka juhudi zaidi katika usafirishaji wa mafuta kuliko kusaidia suluhisho la hali ya hewa.
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Early this week, your devoted chronicler spoke of the virtue of patience, a virtue that has been the constant companion of those awaiting the fruition of the Global Goal on Adaptation. But alas, even the saintliest of souls find their patience tested when faced with the slow machinations of this boring political dance. Now, let us not be mistaken, the crafting of a comprehensive GGA framework is no frivolous matter.  

Until now, the urgency of adaptation action and finance has fallen off the radar. Just like the snail pace of negotiations, adaptation planning, implementation, and finance has stalled. Yet, the question remains: where is adaptation hiding at COP and why must such a crucial matter be shrouded in complexity and delay?

ECO challenges you to ponder this – is adaptation’s complexity truly insurmountable, or is it a convenient excuse for those who wish to delay progress? ECO has been anticipating a result after two years of discussions & workshops on GGA and if COP28 doesn’t deliver on adaptation, it will be a significant global failure.

During Wednesday’s tense sessions punctuated by points of order, ECO watched in horror as the adaptation negotiations collapsed in front of our eyes. The spirit of collaboration, discovered by Parties as late as the 7th workshop, vanished into thin air.
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We are entering the final phase of this COP – and are mind-blown. Not by the swift and impeccable logistics in the Dubai COP venue, but by the slow progress made on multiple negotiation tracks and the amount of work still ahead if COP28 is to result in a successful outcome.

Let us look at the Mitigation Work Programme (WMP) for example. After one week of negotiations, Parties have merely produced a text, without any real substance on mitigation. ECO wants to remind everyone why this is a problem: The MWP is the space in the negotiations where Parties agree on actionable steps to “urgently scale up mitigation ambition” in line with the objectives of the Paris Agreement. Looking at the extent of the climate crisis around us and the gloomy scientific outlooks on where we are heading, moving at a snails pace on such a critical issue should be out of the question.

As said, the current text is very slim and mainly repeats existing language. It leaves A LOT to be desired still: Parties need to make sure they deliver on the 1.5°C target which means collectively reducing global emissions by 43% by 2030 and 60% by 2035, while recognising the principles of the highest possible ambition, equity and best and latest available science.
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Parties at COP28 are challenged to follow the leadership of their counterparts at COP5 of the Minamata Convention on Mercury who recently made a landmark decision.

On November 3, just over a month ago, 147 Parties agreed to phase out all fluorescent lamps by 2027; effectively paving the way for a seamless transition to mercury-free and energy-efficient LED lamps.

This decision will, cumulatively by 2050:  

• Avoid 2.7 gigatonnes of carbon dioxide emissions,
• Save USD 1.13 trillion on electricity bills, and   
• Eliminate 158 tonnes of mercury pollution, both from the light bulbs themselves and from avoided mercury emissions from coal-fired power plants.

Overwhelming evidence generated by research conducted in up to 60 countries by the Clean Lighting Coalition highlighted the incontestable health, economic, environment, climate, and technology benefits of transitioning to LED lamps.

It was also a matter of environmental justice. As countries in the Global North legislate the phase out of fluorescents without halting their manufacture, countries in the Global South become targets for the dumping of these toxic products.

In the face of such compelling evidence, any attempt to present counter arguments supporting the continuation of fluorescents, due to pressure from manufacturers, became untenable.

Remarkably, it took less than three years to adopt this landmark decision from the time the amendment to the Minamata Convention to eliminate fluorescents was introduced. 
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 (to be sung in the tune of Beyonce’s Single Ladies)

All the delegates
All the delegates
All the delegates
All the delegates
All the delegates
All the delegates
Now put your plates up!

Up in B1, tryin’ a-save the world
I’m doing my own little thing
Decided to dip, and now you wanna trip
‘Cause somebody screwed the GST

It’s weak, you see, your NDC
You didn’t pay any attention
Just cried my tears, for thirty one years
From reading the IPCC

‘Cause if you liked it then you should have put some text on it
If you liked it, then you shoulda put your badge on it
Don’t be mad once you see they screwed the GST
If you liked it, then you shoulda put some text on it
Oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, o-ohh

Got water up to my hips, then cracked lips
All crazy weather in between
While you’re acting up, drinking your cup
Don’t threaten me with Rule 16
We’re failing our mission, did I mention
The global goal on adaptation?
‘Cause you had your turn, and now you gonna learn
To spell the damn NCQG

Cause if you liked it then you should have put some text on it
If you liked it, then you shoulda put your badge on it
Don’t be mad once you see they screwed the GST
If you liked it, then you shoulda put some text on it
Oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, o-ohh