Categoría: Previous Issues Articles

This Wednesday, UN Environment launched its third Adaptation Gap Report, which focuses on global assessment. The report puts a much needed spotlight on the (perhaps conveniently forgotten) Global Goal on Adaptation (GGA) of enhancing adaptive capacity, strengthening resilience, and reducing vulnerability to climate change, which is part of the Paris Agreement. The GGA not only aims to contribute to sustainable development, but also to ensure an adequate adaptation response globally to climate change, in the context of the temperature goal referred to in Article 2 of the Paris Agreement.

ECO would like to remind Parties that no substantive work has been undertaken to unpack its elements or operationalize the GGA since the adoption of the Paris Agreement. 

The UN Environment report was released on the heels of its latest Emissions Gap Report, which warns that current mitigation pledges point towards a likely temperature increase of around 3 °C in 2100. Last year, the same agency published the landmark Adaptation Finance Gap Report, which brought to light that the costs of adaptation in developing countries could range from US$ 140 billion to US$ 300 billion US dollars per year by 2030. 

To state the obvious, we not only have to urgently strengthen mitigation ambition but also scale up adaptation actions to minimize loss and damage.
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 Ludwig has heard about a new proposal for carbon markets and international cooperation that sounds almost too good to be true.

Brazilian negotiators were particularly enthusiastic about the idea. As one negotiator explained, “Imagine if you could make a transfer from your bank account to another account to pay a debt. Suppose they could get paid and your bank balance doesn’t change. Sounds great, right!! We have found a way to do that with carbon credits.”

This proposal is called the “Katowice Double Counting Mechanism”, a rebranding of the proposed Sustainable Development Mechanism. The idea, Ludwig has learned, is to turn the CDM — which has been plagued by low demand for credits, rock-bottom carbon prices, and concerns about dodgy additionality rules — into something that, after 2020, can be a win-win-win for everyone involved: buyers, sellers, project developers, etc. Everyone except the climate and the victims of climate change, but Ludwig understands you can’t please everyone.

Traditional orthodoxy would claim that any time a carbon credit is transferred from one country to another and used to allow increased emissions in that country, the source country has to deduct this from reductions needed to meet their cap. This is called “corresponding adjustments” under the Paris agreement.
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ECO was excited to be part of the Presidency’s Open Dialogue yesterday. The event was unique because it allowed Parties and Non-Party Stakeholders (NPS) to gather around the same table and participate in a discussion, unlike the usual style of statements or interventions in plenaries, where typically observers get only very short slots at the very end.

ECO appreciates both the Presidency’s and Secretariat’s efforts which paved the way for this very much needed form of conversation between Parties and NPS. It was also great to see so many Parties participating in this event.

Two topics were selected for this session: «NDC enhancement and implementation» and «enhancing observer access to and participation in formal meetings». Both are close to our hearts! Our hearts are also exceptionally warm since our representatives had the opportunity to make points on the importance of the Talanoa Dialogue as perhaps the last opportunity to increase mitigation ambition in order to bring us to a 1.5°C-compatible pathway. Additionally, our colleagues stressed NPS’ role of creating platforms for cross-border collaboration and that this form of conversation should continue.

We found these exchanges quite useful. However, ECO also believes there is room for improvement in regards to the methodology of the discussion.
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From the devastating Atlantic hurricane season to catastrophic flooding across South Asia, 2017 has delivered harrowing reminders of the human cost and grave injustice of climate change. Loss and damage from climate change is not a future hypothetical but a growing current reality, affecting millions around the world.

 

AOSIS, LDCs, G77, Africa Group, AILAC – we heard you loud and clear at the opening of SBI and the past days’ consultations and couldn’t agree more! We simply cannot let this COP – the ‘Pacific COP’ – go by without real progress in action and support on loss and damage.

 

First, it is long past time to elevate loss and damage within the negotiations. This means making it a permanent agenda item of the subsidiary bodies and under the CMA negotiation process. We must link work on loss and damage to all elements of the Paris Agreement, including the Global Stocktake and the Transparency Framework, in a clever but effective way. Permanent agendas are critical because other than annual reports of the Executive Committee on its work, there is currently no way for Parties to oversee the larger Warsaw International Mechanism on Loss and Damage (WIM) aspirations or the achievement of Article 8 of the Paris Agreement.
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ECO welcomes a new delegation at the COP this year.

 

The delegation represents a country whose people are deeply committed to climate action. A country with universities, businesses, cities, and states that are pushing forward with plans to achieve bold climate targets like 100% renewable energy. A country that believes in science, respect, and the importance of the global community. A country that currently has a President and Administration who believes in none of these things.

 

Meet the U.S. People’s Delegation, a delegation of climate activists and community leaders from across the United States who have come to COP23 to represent the true spirit of the nation and to push for bold climate action that goes above and beyond the Paris Agreement.

 

The U.S. People’s Delegation is stepping in to fill the void left by the Trump Administration, which announced its intention to exit the Paris Agreement. This administration is here at the climate talks not on behalf of the American people, it seems, but on behalf of their friends in the fossil fuel industry (the main side event hosted by the “official” U.S. delegation this year is an infomercial for “clean” coal).

 

Instead of speaking for this fossil fuel driven and dirty past, the U.S.
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The Fossil of the Day goes to France for postponing its target for dropping the share of nuclear energy in its power mix. France therefore sends a bad signal on its ability to meet its already agreed to energy transition targets at home and its shift towards a 100% renewable future.

 

France, you’ve been doing good so far on the international stage! You helped shape the Paris Agreement at COP21, and since then you’ve been working to achieve ambitious outcomes at UNFCCC conferences. Congratulations on this — keep up the good work!

 

But guess what? Strong ambition at international meetings is not enough. “Making our Planet Great Again” also requires national policies that live up to international rhetoric. Backsliding from agreed upon commitments cannot happen if you want to remain the gatekeeper of the Paris Agreement.

 

Yesterday, your government announced that you would not honour your 2025 target of phasing nuclear down from 75% to 50% of your electricity mix, delaying your ambition from 5 to 10 years. This target was part of a law for energy transition, passed after 3 years of inclusive dialogue with French civil society and ahead of COP21. ECO reminds you that your newly elected President Emmanuel Macron made the promise to respect and implement the energy transition as such.
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Last week’s UN Environment Emissions Gap Report showed that the world’s ‘distance to target’ on carbon emissions continues to grow. The gap between current NDCs and the 1.5 and 2 degree trajectories ranges between a huge 11 and 19 gigatons of CO2 equivalent emissions for 2030, 20-35% of present emissions.

 

Scientists suggest that the even with full implementation of current NDCs 80% of the carbon budget for 2 degrees will be depleted by 2030, and would be fully depleted for the 1.5 degree target. And that is if countries actually fulfill their NDC commitments, which is in doubt for the US, Indonesia, Australia, and several others.

 

The conclusion is that current NDCs are not enough. Governments already know that their combined pledges for 2030 are insufficient, particularly those of industrialised countries. The IPCC Special Report in autumn 2018 will show this ever more clearly, but governments should not wait for this to act.

 

There is good news, however. Global CO2 equivalent emissions — not just energy-related CO2 — seem to have plateaued between 2014 to 2016. Moreover, there is growing potential for cost-effective carbon cuts, defined as below $US100/ton CO2, until 2030. This means that the number of policies with minimal or even negative costs have been growing significantly.
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Last week’s UN Environment Emissions Gap Report showed that the world’s ‘distance to target’ on carbon emissions continues to grow. The gap between current NDCs and the 1.5 and 2 degree trajectories ranges between a huge 11 and 19 gigatons of CO₂ equivalent emissions for 2030, 20-35% of present emissions.

Scientists suggest that the even with full implementation of current NDCs 80% of the carbon budget for 2 degrees will be depleted by 2030, and would be fully depleted for the 1.5 degree target. And that is if countries actually fulfill their NDC commitments, which is in doubt for the US, Indonesia, Australia, and several others.

The conclusion is that current NDCs are not enough. Governments already know that their combined pledges for 2030 are insufficient, particularly those of industrialised countries. The IPCC Special Report in autumn 2018 will show this ever more clearly, but governments should not wait for this to act.

There is good news, however. Global CO₂ equivalent emissions — not just energy-related CO₂ — seem to have plateaued between 2014 to 2016. Moreover, there is growing potential for cost-effective carbon cuts, defined as below $US100/ton CO₂, until 2030. This means that the number of policies with minimal or even negative costs have been growing significantly.
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Picture a country where renewables make up nearly 50% of the energy mix, where sustainable biofuels are commonplace, and where huge strides have been taken to reduce wasteful carbon emissions; more so than any other country over the last decade. One may think such a country would be poised to lead the world in developing a green economy. But Brazil has apparently chosen to change course and become a petrostate instead.

 

Ever since it discovered large offshore oil deposits, Brazil has reduced support for ethanol and doubled down on dirty energy. About 70% of all its energy investments in the next decade are earmarked for fossil fuel projects, mostly offshore oil and gas. As if this weren’t bad enough, President Michel Temer is now supporting a tax break for oil companies that could amount to US$300 billion over the next 2 decades – even as the country flounders in the worst recession in its history. 

 

While Brazilian negotiators in Bonn vow more climate ambition and peddle biofuels as a climate mitigation solution, President Temer has sent a welcome package for oil majors, an emergency bill (Medida Provisória ), to Congress. It has a deadline of December 15 for approval. If it clears Congress, oil companies will flow into Brazil like an oil slick.
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While walking the corridors of the Bula and Bonn zones, ECO is hearing an old tune – but it’s not a lieder by Beethoven, it’s the siren song for the continuation of the Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) after 2020. This is very disappointing and ECO is confused as to why this is still being presented as an open issue. In the interests of protecting environmental integrity, a key principle of the Paris Agreement, it is essential to start with a clean slate and make its Article 6 fit for purpose.

The CDM provides a wealth of experience, both positive and negative, which should not be forgotten. At the same time, it should not be allowed to undermine the ambition of the Paris Agreement. Here are a couple of points to respond to discussions on the CDM:

First and foremost, the Paris Agreement calls for more ambition. The recent UN Environment Emissions Gap report highlighted the necessity for more and faster action in all sectors. The zero-sum exercise of pure offsetting such as in the CDM – shifting emissions from one place to another – is simply passé. If markets are still to play a role they have to go beyond this framework.
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