ECO Newsletter

For the Middle East, the climate crisis is already a harsh reality. From the floods of Jeddah to the droughts and sea level rise in many Mediterranean cities. The region will face more droughts, sea level rise, heat waves, and more hot days, which will make especially children and women more vulnerable. These effects will lead to crop failure in the areas with poor natural resource management. The conflict over scarce resources will increase and lead to demographic pressures in the places people flee to. This will mean having internally displaced persons; others might seek asylum. They might be portrayed as economic migrants, but in 10 years they will be clearly classified as climate migrants. One of the biggest challenges in developing new policies will be to define such climate migrants.  

The Nile delta, in Egypt, for example, which is highly vulnerable to sea level rise, is densely populated. With a 1m rise in sea level, an estimated 4,500 km² of farmland could be flooded, displacing 6 million people.  

Internal migration has already started in the Middle East. If the climate crisis intensifies, we risk a political and armed conflict taking hold throughout the Fertile Crescent, which will probably be a lot less fertile because of climate change.
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Over 70 million people in the world now live as refugees who fled war, persecution and conflict – the highest level that the UNHCR has seen in its almost 70 years, according to their Global Trends report. It is the world’s developing regions who are hosting 84% of all refugees.

While they grapple with the refugee crisis, the unfolding climate emergency is making it worse for them as well as for the entire global community. In 2017 alone, there were over 18 million new displacements associated with disasters (such as floods and storms accounting for more than 80% of the incidents) across 135 countries and territories, according to Geneva based Internal Displacement Monitoring Centre (IDMC).

The deadly drought in Afghanistan that affected 2.2 million people, displaced more people human beings in 2018 than the war between the country’s government and the Taliban. In the last few weeks, India has faced extremely high temperatures wherein the capital city of Delhi had its highest ever June temperature of 48°C, while the city of Churu in Rajasthan state experienced 50.8°C.  More than 70%of districts in the Indian states of Maharashtra and Karnataka are hit by drought and crop failure, forcing thousands of people out of their homes and making it hard for about 8 million farmers to survive.
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A serious discussion suddenly broke out yesterday in room Addis Abeba on how to meet the ultimate objective of the Convention and prevent dangerous climate change. This under the item of the Second Periodic Review (SPR) of the long-term global goal under the Convention, where Parties started sharing concrete ideas and proposals for how to move forward with Theme 1 of the item – reviewing the adequacy of the global goal. (Theme 2 is a review of progress in getting there)

Some might say that we are hopelessly off course from a pathway anywhere near 2 degrees Celsius that it doesn’t matter much whether we aim for 1.5°C or well below 2°C or somewhere in between. But there is a lot of truth in the old adage that if you don’t know where you are going, you are unlikely to get there.

And in fact, the global goal agreed in 2015 under the Paris Agreement and the UNFCCC is ambiguous. For ECO it is clear, limiting warming to 1.5°C is the only reasonable option. What is most important – Limiting warming to 1.5°C, or well below 2°C. What about overshoot and return? How much effort should be made to limit warming to 1.5°C.
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ECO is excited to see nine non-Annex I Parties participating in the facilitative sharing of views (FSV) for their biennial update reports (BURs) and offers our congratulations to Parties for the work in developing their BURs. ECO thinks the FSV can be a great place to share lessons learned and experiences with other Parties in a constructive and welcoming environment. We look forward to hearing your presentations and Q&A sessions throughout the day.

Since ECO and other observers can’t ask questions during these workshops, we wanted to share our questions with you, to inform your discussions:

• Armenia
  • Armenia’s BUR notes that an MRV system will be established in 2019. Can you provide an update on the establishment of this system? What lessons has Armenia learned from its participation in the international consultation and analysis process that has informed the establishment of the MRV system?
• Brazil
  • Brazil’s BUR2 notes that the Modular System for Monitoring Actions and GHG Emissions Reductions (SMMARE) would be revised in 2017 to monitor mitigation and adaptation actions. Can you speak to your experience in building and evolving your MRV system and the process of revising the systems to ensure they are fit-for-purpose? How does Brazil envision the ongoing future evolution of its MRV system?

True to the motto “if it ain’t broke, don’t fix it,” ECO calls on negotiators to prevent any disruption or interference with the Adaptation Fund‘s (AF) ability to effectively fulfil its mandate. Negotiators just need to play an enabling role to ensure that the AF can continue to effectively serve the Paris Agreement, as it has since January 2019.

ECO was delighted to hear so many negotiators yesterday being very happy about the AF now serving the Paris Agreement. And of course ECO agrees with negotiators that the AF is covering a key niche in the international climate finance architecture. Its focus on people and communities most vulnerable to climate change, the direct access modality which it has pioneered, and its innovative features are only a few of its many unique characteristics. However, something is not fixed yet. The Fund still depends on thin support to continue to fulfil its unique mandate. It‘s facing the same need for life-support year by year, and depends on financial contributions from Parties to stay alive.

While some might still feel encouraged by the fact that the Fund surpassed its resource mobilisation targets last year, others are worried about its ad-hoc funding. While ECO was also happy about the many developed country Parties’ contributions to the AF, it also notes that the AF needs more than that.
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“Lights… Camera… Action!”–the second shoot of the agriculture discussions at the UNFCCC! Since 2009, Parties have struggled with what to do with agriculture. We are now in the midst of several workshops discussing adaptation, soils, nutrient use, manure management, and the critical issue of socio-economic and food security aspects of climate action in agriculture with a decision due in one and a half years, at COP26.

The Intergovernmental Science-Policy Platform on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services (IPBES) recently launched its Global Assessment that demonstrates rather dramatically that we’re on our way to extinction, along with millions of other species, unless you see the light.

In short, biodiversity and climate change are inextricably linked and our future is tied to the survival of other species.

But do not despair! There is good news. Agroecology is a transformative approach that can help save agriculture and hence the planet from destruction and provide a massive opportunity for a Just Transition. We are not dreaming: FAO and IPBES have both recently highlighted the high potential of agroecology to achieve the SDGs, the Paris Agreement goals, and the goals of the Convention on Biological Diversity. As well as to maintain and restore biodiversity. Even better news: so much work is being done on agroecology with the help of many of your own governments and other intergovernmental organizations.
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This morning’s ECO brings exciting news for you!

But first, let’s start with what happened a few months ago. This spring, European citizens, especially the youth, took to the streets and called out loud and clear that they wanted more action on climate from their governments. This you all know. All these people on the streets made the climate emergency THE European election topic in many countries. Across the political spectrum, politicians committed themselves to stronger climate action, and the success of climate champions on the ballots confirmed to decision makers that delay is no longer acceptable and that the time to act is now.

And we really mean now! Tomorrow, Thursday, June 20, European heads of state and government gather in Brussels for an EU Summit to discuss the outcomes and conclusions of these European elections. And the main issue on their agenda is the climate crisis and what the EU can bring to the UNSG Climate Action Summit in September. Instructions for the UNSG Summit are clear: no speeches, but new and ambitious climate action that cuts global emissions by half by 2030. UNSG Guterres also sent a letter to the EU and outlined that this means revising the EU NDC with a target of 55% below 1990 levels by 2030.
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How much warming (and resulting climatic disruption) is too much? The 2013-2015 review of 1.5°C of warming concluded there would be serious and perhaps irreversible impacts from exceeding this threshold.

Since the Paris Agreement was adopted, we have had the IPCC Special Report on Global Warming of 1.5°C (SR1.5) and more science is coming every day with increasingly alarming news of the consequences of exceeding 1.5°C.

This is where the Second Periodic Review (SPR) comes in. It can help Parties come to grips with the emerging science and escalating impacts and guide them towards an appropriate application of the global goal. This will be an essential input to the Global Stocktake (GST) in 2023. As an extra bonus, it will also start the GST’s work on assessing progress towards meeting that goal.

But today, during the first informal consultation on the SPR, in a jam packed room reflecting the growing interest in this important topic, ECO couldn’t fail to notice that some delegates seem to be too busy working in this bubble to see what happens outside of it: heatwaves in Asia and cyclones like Idai in Mozambique or Fani in India — whether attributed to climate change or not – occur more often and are stronger, just like the IPCC scenarios suggest.
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COP24 requested the SBSTA to consider the IPCC Special Report on Global Warming of 1.5°C (SR1.5°C) in order to strengthen scientific knowledge on the 1.5°C goal.

With apologies to Shakespeare (and the planet), it appears that some Parties have come here to bury the SR1.5°C, not to praise it or to learn from it.

There is much in this report that Parties must grapple with and collectively and individually take on board. The report spells out the emissions pathways compatible with this goal, the financing and economic transformations necessary, and the implications for equity and justice.

Parties that are more concerned about climate change impacts than oil revenue want to have a substantive discussion and reach conclusions from that outcome that can help drive action to limit warming to 1.5°C.

But some would prefer to ignore the science, and thus also the impacts, and the suffering of those facing the impacts. After first arguing Parties should completely ignore this request, Saudi Arabia then called for “procedural outcomes” from this consideration – which is UNFCCC-speak for a text that ends discussion of the topic and never looks back.

Now the SBSTA Chair has reported a “gentlemen’s agreement” that dispenses with Rule 16, a rule which calls for an agenda item to be taken up at the next meeting if agreement on an outcome is not reached at this one.
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