ECO Newsletter

The IPCC found that in order to get onto a 2°C pathway, there needs to be a massive shift in energy investment flows in the next 15 years. Hundreds of billions of dollars would need to be annually shifted away from fossil fuel investments, and into, first and foremost, energy efficiency, and secondarily, renewable energy.

In energy supply, zero and low-carbon energies would need to at least triple or quadruple by 2050. Out of the technology options outlined, renewable energy, particularly solar and wind energy, are the most promising trends, with most co-benefits and fewest risks.

There’s enough potential in renewables to meet all of our energy needs. Renewables have advanced substantially in performance and cost-efficiency since the last IPCC report in 2007. During 2005-2012, wind and solar PV grew 5 and 25 times, respectively. They are now ready to be deployed at a significant scale. Renewable energy is also best suited to respond to the energy needs of the poorest and most vulnerable people.

None of this can be said of nuclear or Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS). The IPCC found that nuclear is a mature technology, but it is declining in efficacy in addition to facing various barriers and risks.
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There is a growing realisation, supported by AR5, that emission reductions are not a zero sum game. In fact, emission reductions will have significant development co-benefits. There are two aspects to this.

Firstly, without emission reductions, the impacts of climate change would be so devastating that they could erode several decades worth of developmental gains in an instant. Several extreme weather events resulting in large-scale, high intensity disasters have shown us just that. These include three catastrophic floods in the Indian subcontinent alone including the Indus River floods in Pakistan, and the Uttarakhand, Jammu, and Kashmir floods in India in successive years. And we all remember, quite vividly, the destruction caused by Typhoon Haiyan. All of these events have occurred in quick succession in the last few years.

The developed world has not been spared either. Devastating forest fires have occurred in Australia and USA almost every year, alongside the well-known devastation caused by Hurricane Sandy. These damages are not something you can just do away with through economic growth.

Secondly, emission reductions that are realised through a co-benefit approach would result in more sustainable and resilient development. The provision of energy access, through renewable energy, to the 1.4 billion people globally who lack access to modern energy services, would result in more resilient development gains than a polluting, fossil fuel driven process.
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i) How can we try and ensure that global CO2-emissions go to zero to ensure that average temperatures do not rise beyond 1.5°C?

ii) What can the IPCC say on the past and future cost trends of CCS and renewables? Based on existing level of technological maturity, will CCS ever be a viable option for achieving global zero emissions of GHGs?

iii) What are the findings of the IPCC on the co-benefits (e.g. public health, economic benefits due to lower fuel prices) of low or zero carbon scenarios? How can one ensure that co-benefits are recognised and pursued?

iv) What can the IPCC tell us on the feasibility of effective adaptation for different scenarios / temperature regimes and on limits to adaptation? How safe is a warming of 2°C for ocean ecosystems, for biodiversity, and far would it endanger the provision of livelihoods for people, especially the poor?

Questions on intelligence from other organisations (e.g. IEA, UNEP)

a) How best can we ensure that a fossil fuel locked in future is avoided?

b) How are the trends in prices for renewables (e.g. PV or wind) since the IPCC cut-off date? How can the achievement of renewable energy cost parity be accelerated?
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The importance of equity in the 2015 agreement has broad support, but what an equitable agreement applicable to all actually means is both an unclear and controversial issue. Disagreement exists on the operationalisation and scope of equity, and on approaches for assessment of the INDCs.

To break the deadlock in the negotiations, CAN has made a detailed proposal for a dynamic Equity Reference Framework that is explicitly rooted in the Convention’s core equity principles. This side event will further articulate the proposal and provide an opportunity for discussions on how to bring this framework into the negotiations.
Party Respondents: South Africa (confirmed), Bolivia, Brazil, China, Colombia, India (requested).

Please join!

The first Fossil of the Day at COP20 goes to Australia, Belgium, Ireland and Austria (alongside the other non-pledgers: Iceland, Greece, Portugal, and the European Union) for being the only Annex 2 countries failing so far to contribute to the GCF. After a string of encouraging initial contributions, it seems this band of Annex 2 free-riders see no need to contribute. This is not acceptable and stands to jeopardise the Paris agreement, under which all countries are expected to take action. To the free-riding ministers: Bring your chequebooks to Lima.

We are very happy to be in Lima, and ECO is ready to get right to it. COP20 needs to deliver on enough confidence building measures to ensure climate action and a successful outcome from next year’s COP in Paris. The wheels have already started turning:
-The Peruvian COP presidency has shown commitment and substantial
effort to guide the negotiations onto the right track.
-The US-China climate announcement, on the heels of similar action by the EU, has injected positive impetus into the political aspect of the negotiations – and is pressuring significant laggards and defaulters, who can no longer claim inaction by the G2 to wiggle out of doing their part.
-The IPCC is shining clear light on the latest science, pointing urgently to deeper climate action as well as the fast-rising costs of delay.
-The GCF is seeing some light at the dim end of the climate finance tunnel with pledges at $9.7 billion for initial capitalization – though that’s welcome, it must not distract from the pressing need to scale up finance within the new agreement.
Are these announcements and developments enough to create the right confidence building measures across countries, cement the foundation for greater political will and achieve success in Paris?
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At the Vigil for the Climate outside the Pentagonito, Christiana Figueres, executive secretary of the UNFCCC, and Manuel Pulgar-Vidal, the Peruvian Minister for the Environment and incoming COP president. The lighting of candles begins the celebration of the first year of monthly fasting by faith and environmental groups around the world in the Fast for the Climate.

Today, on the occasion of the opening of COP20, marks the largest climate fast on record, with the whole nation of Tuvalu called on to fast, and empty tables being erected round the world.

Fasters can be found in Zone C at lunchtime, and the Fast for the Climate press conference is 3 pm in Room 2.

Let’s start off this COP with a bit of a reality check on the progress (or lack thereof) on phasing out dirty fossil fuels – particularly in developed countries. Scientists have shown that we currently have many times more fossil fuels in existing reserves than our global carbon budget can withstand in a 2 oC scenario. Yet governments continue to subsidize the exploration and production of even more fossil fuels. So again ECO reminds about their existing commitments to phase out these subsidies.

Recently, however, there have been hopeful signs. France announced that it plans to join the US, UK and Netherlands in severely restricting export credit financing for coal projects in developing countries. Though this indeed is a welcome step, ECO suggests that such a move needs to have a clear timeline, and that these countries need to take concrete steps to phase out all fossil fuel subsidies. Next in line should be other big developed countries (take note, Germany, Japan and Poland). The spotlight on developed countries to phase out fossil fuel subsidies is getting stronger and there is no excuse for any further delay.

In addition, a crucial point. Countries must immediately phase out support for exploration of new fossil fuel reserves.
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