ECO Newsletter

Many copies of ECO spend long lonely nights in the conference hall pondering fundamental questions like: “Why am I the one that did not get picked up?”, “Am I worth my carbon footprint?” and “Where do good copies of ECO go when they are tossed in the bin?”.

We wonder if Parties also ponder important questions. The Multilateral Assessments taking place today and Friday are important moments for Parties to answer questions like: “Am I doing enough to fulfil my obligations and save millions of people from climate impacts?”.

Key questions for ECO are: “What’s stopping developed countries from doing more to close the emissions gap when we know that they can?” and “Why on (warming) earth have many of them not ratified KP2?”

Here are some important questions that certain countries should be asking themselves:

– Will Australia fulfil its commitment to do more, given its stated criterion, in concert with the stronger international action of others? The government appointed independent Climate Change Authority analysis argues the criterion has been met.

– How can Belgium deliver its 2020 target if it is not clear how the task will be divided nationally? It’s been more than 5 years since Belgium adopted its greenhouse gas emission reduction target for 2020, and it still has not reached agreement about effort sharing between the regions and federal government.
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German Chancellor Angela Merkel wants to make climate protection a top issue for the G7 Summit she is hosting this coming Sunday and Monday. With preparations at Schloss Elmau under way, ECO is growing ever more concerned about Germany’s coal power plants.

Coal still accounts for 44% of Germany’s electricity supply, and CO2 emissions rose for 3 years, mainly due to the burning of cheaper-and-dirtier lignite, before a decline was seen in 2014. The “Energiewende” country is risking the ability to achieve its national target of 40% greenhouse gas emissions reduction by 2020 (compared to 1990 levels).

That’s why the government has decided on a Climate Action Programme to further cut emissions. Germany’s energy minister, for the first time ever, has proposed an additional contribution from the power sector, targeting coal power plants over 20 years old. By addressing the dirtiest 10% of Germany’s coal power plants, the government wants to reduce an additional 22 million tonnes of CO₂.

Naturally, there was an outcry following the announcement of this modest first step. Members of Merkel’s conservative party protested heavily against any coal phase-out, while trade unions balked claiming that thousands of jobs are at risk. Under heavy attack, energy minister Gabriel may now weaken his proposal.
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Establishing the Warsaw International Mechanism on Loss and Damage (WIM) was a major achievement of vulnerable developing countries. Last year in Lima, COP20 approved the WIM’s work plan for 2015-2016, which is crucial to progress, in addressing loss and damage from climate impacts. Unfortunately, that progress has stalled.

The mechanism has not been allowed to start its work yet, because, 6 months after Lima, its executive committee is still not staffed. Until a few weeks ago, LDCs—a moment of praise for them—were the only Parties to have submitted their representatives and most non-Annex I seats are now filled.

But where are the Annex I countries? Is this a strategy to delay the start of the mechanism? Or are Annex I countries working hard on identifying those individuals who are most committed to getting the mechanism up and running?

It is disappointing that the urgent work of the WIM faces such delay, and ECO urges all developed  countries to make groups to finalise their nominations immediately. If speedily resolved, ExCom members can use the remainder of Bonn to kick off work well before Paris.  Doing so would demonstrate that serious efforts to address loss and damage are underway, and the WIM is on track for inclusion into the Paris agreement.

Yesterday, ECO enjoyed a full day of presentations and discussions on renewable energy (RE) during the Technical Expert Meetings. RE is now creating more jobs than the oil and gas sector: the success is truly inspiring. RE’s development potential, and current and future importance, is so noteworthy that it’s now referenced in the SDGs zero-draft document released yesterday. It’s long past time that RE appeared in the texts here in Bonn.

The cost of solar power has declined 80% and wind 60% just in the last five years. Generating RE is now cheaper than fossil fuel-based sources in many parts of the world. Investments in RE grew by 17% last year. Moreover, the largest investors in RE as a share of GDP are all developing countries: Mauritius, Uruguay, Costa Rica, Nicaragua, South Africa and Chile It’s clear that RE can be a viable and accessible development pathway, despite arguments to the contrary.

In the past year, China installed more RE than coal, while the US installed more wind power than coal and gas combined. Germany achieved almost 28% RE in its electricity mix. In India, RE is now double the capacity of nuclear energy. And the list goes on and on…

These trends demonstrate that a transition to 100% RE is already possible with today’s technology. 
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Yesterday the UN released its zero-draft text for the Post-2015 development agenda, which includes the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). There’s a rather weak climate change goal but no reference to the 1.5˚C target or to the huge effort that is needed across all the SDGs to put us on that pathway. Nor is there comment on the drastic implications for poverty reduction of not staying below 1.5˚C.

The main paragraph on climate change has no acknowledgement that the SDGs are the building blocks to a low-carbon and climate-resilient future. This needs to be corrected. To achieve sustainable development, the SDGs must address structural issues. Given all the knowledge mankind now has on the destructive effects of the fossil fuel economy, the declaration must not fail to mention the obvious need for a shift from fossil fuels to renewable energy.

How New York fares will impact what happens in Paris. ECO hopes you’ll tap your colleagues, who are neck deep in the Post-2015 dialogues, on the shoulder and remind them of the central role action on climate has on the path to a sustainably developed future.

It’s time for a reality-check: mitigation is not a negotiation tactic, it’s a mission for protecting people and the world’s environments. The mounting tension surrounding the outcomes of the Structured Expert Dialogue (SED) shows that the journey from science to policy is a tricky path. (Saudi Arabia — we’re not impressed; this is not a game, decisions made here have profound effects on people’s lives and livelihoods.)

The SED said that 2˚C cannot serve as a guardrail that will keep us safe as long as we stay to one side, but rather 2˚C is at best a last-stand defence line. The review underscored that even 2˚C of global warming will incur heavy losses for the world and its peoples.  A 1.5˚C target would be much more secure.

The current warming of 0.85˚C is already incurring clear and inescapable damages. No community and no country, whether developed or developing, is exempt. Typhoon Haiyan devastated Filipino communities, and Cylone Pam hit Tuvalu, Solomon Islands and most of all Vanuatu with extraordinary force, wiping out hard-won development. Sea-level rise elevated the storm surge of Hurricane Sandy helping to bring one of the most sophisticated cities in the developed world to a standstill and there too, the poorest suffered most of all.
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When you go out with friends for dinner, do you pay the full bill or do you just put a few coins on the table and run off? In Paris, we’ll see how negotiators answer this question. The way it looks now, ECO wouldn’t want to own a restaurant in Paris.

Just yesterday, the SED 2013-15 review put the bill on the table in big letters and numbers that everyone can read. Meanwhile, countries are offering INDCs—some of which may look politically ambitious at home—but it is obvious to everyone that they won’t add up to what we need. And remember: we haven’t yet paid the full bill from Copenhagen.

This truth is starting to dawn on many. Some media stories already say that Paris has failed before it starts—failed to deliver a path to 2°C or 1.5°C. But they forget that there is a secret (though underused) weapon within these talks: Workstream 2 (WS2). Thus far, WS2 has produced positive learning and brought in much needed momentum from outside experts. To prove the naysayers wrong, the Paris outcome must include a much stronger combination of processes to tackle the gigatonne gap.

1) We can’t tackle the gap unless we know how big it is.
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ECO ♥ <3s Workstream 2 and has been looking forward to the next TEM since the last one when Parties united behind the slogan “more, faster, now!”

Today, it’s finally time to gather some of our brightest minds to talk about renewable energy supply: how to unlock potential and leverage scalable, replicable and transformative support efforts.

It’s important that the TEMs are part of every negotiation session and continue beyond 2015. There are many issues and nuances with the areas of high mitigation potential that have not been covered yet. Here’s some of the most interesting things we have learned so far:

– Many countries (from Germany to India, the UAE and Morocco) were too careful when they decided on their renewable energy targets and have subsequently been surprised by their success  in achieving and exceeding them.

– Many countries which do not have targets specifically for renewable energy have excellent secondary legislation, which has resulted in a recent boom in renewables. Examples include wind power in Brazil and solar in Japan.

– Many countries have developed frameworks for renewable energy, mostly for reasons other than climate change. This proves that renewables are more attractive than fossil fuels for a range of reasons.
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While ECO enjoys the TEMs, let’s not forget that the technical examination process is only one part of Workstream 2 and the crucial work of raising pre-2020 mitigation ambition. Developed countries, you have a particular responsibility for closing the gap. After all, the convention clearly asks you to «take the lead».

Here is how you do that: start with fully implementing what you’ve already committed to do-mitigation and finance. This is particularly relevant for those of you who are backtracking on your 2020 commitments. But you will have to go beyond that.

Developed countries’ 2020 targets are too weak and need to be strengthened. The number of studies showing the many benefits of more ambitious climate action keep growing, while the costs of renewable energies keep falling.

The Kyoto Protocol is part of this pre-2020 puzzle. Ratification of the Kyoto Protocol’s second commitment period is key. If Bonn does not make progress on this agenda item, it does not bode well for that little meeting we’re planning to have in Paris at the end of the year. The eyes of the world will be on us, and it’ll be hard to explain why only 32 countries have ratified the Doha amendments when they were agreed upon several years ago.
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