ECO Newsletter

Contrary to the COP28 President’s assertions, ECO knows the science is abundantly clear that warming will continue as long as we keep producing and burning fossil fuels.

ECO reminds negotiators that not only does humanity need to agree to phase out all fossil fuels, but that the phase out needs to be rooted in equity. What’s more, ECO also reminds you that when you’re in a hole, the first step is to stop digging. In our current hole of fossil fuels the first step towards phasing out fossil fuels is to stop expanding them and their infrastructure.

Yet in a time where we should urgently stop pumping fossil fuels to protect our future, a tiny club of wealthy countries that have a historical responsibility for the climate crisis are adding fuel to the fire by planning to massively expand oil and gas production and further threatening the 1.5°C limit. 

Just five countries – US, Canada, Australia, Norway and the UK – are on track to be responsible for over half (51%) of new oil and gas production by 2050. 

The US is responsible for over one-third of all planned oil and gas expansion, a fact ECO would like to highlight as the US just announced a measly $17.5 million for the Loss and Damage Fund, while approving $1.7 billion in public money for fossil fuel projects just in 2023 alone.
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Patience, many say, is the greatest virtue. And for those awaiting the Global Goal on Adaptation, there has been plenty of practice. It may be good for the soul, but ECO is slowly losing it while waiting for an ever-elusive text in the scorching Dubai sun. Even the secretariat is worried about us. Last night they sent out a wellbeing bulletin telling us to get some sleep. Be patient, they said. Mid-afternoon, still hot, and finally a text appears. And it is fiercely opposed by one and all.  

Eight years since its conception and two years of workshop-hopping later, the promise of an immediate operationalisation of the GGA brought us to COP28 with a spring in our step. But nearly a week in with a text that came too late, and rejected by Parties with a single stroke of the pen, ECO’s hopes are fading like a mirage in the desert.

The issues are complex and perspectives, many, but ultimately it is quite simple. We need a GGA framework that is comprehensive and guides countries in meeting the GGA objectives of the Paris Agreement: reduce vulnerability, strengthen resilience, and enhance adaptive capacity. We need clarity on how developing countries will be supported to implement the framework and do their local and national adaptation assessments.
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ECO feels that there has been a slight misunderstanding and would like to clear the air. The unprecedented decision on Day 1 of COP28 to operationalise the Loss and Damage Fund was indeed energising. After 30 years of struggle and disappointment, vulnerable countries and populations could finally say: we have been seen and heard. The flurry of initial loss and damage finance pledges are important. However, pledges that add up to hundreds of millions of USD thus far, while hundreds of billions are needed, are an indication of unfinished business at COP28. And unfortunately, not all of it is new and additional money: Parties, you should not rob Peter to pay Paul.

ECO is also worried by the narrative that COP28 has already wrapped up action on Loss and Damage finance and now, we can move on. The truth is that the decision text on the Loss and Damage finance is far from delivering climate justice. For ECO, it is critical to ensure that the GST addresses significant gaps from the decision and raises the bar to ensure that the political momentum for scaled-up, ongoing and predictable Loss and Damage finance does not fade away. Hopefully, this is what Parties talked about during the various inf-infs that took place yesterday.
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ECO is happy to share this part of our publication with the Indigenous Peoples Caucus (IPO) to help amplify their voice. This article reflects the views of the IPO.

With greenhouse gas emissions, global temperatures, and sea levels rising, climate change is a matter of life and death for Indigenous Peoples in all seven socio-cultural regions of the world. We are the stewards of over 80% of the world’s biodiversity, and as stewards of our lands and territories, we are protecting the future generations for all of humanity. 

For hundreds of years, Indigenous Peoples and our lands and territories have suffered under the predatory systems of colonialism, imperialism, genocide, and ecocide. This continues today, with the extraction of fossil fuels forcing Indigenous Peoples lands to become sacrifice zones, and violating our rights outlined in the United Nations Declaration on the Rights of Indigenous Peoples. Fossil fuel industries violate our right to Free, Prior and Informed Consent, yet they persist with land grabbing, water contamination, hazardous air and living conditions, and ultimately threatening the health and well being of all living things. 

Consultation is not consent, and as Indigenous Peoples we say NO to any new fossil fuel projects, development, and infrastructure!
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There is no safe future in a world fueled by coal, oil, and gas. This is the clear message from climate science and a reality already faced by vulnerable communities in the Global South.

Seven years ago the world signed the Paris Agreement. Article 2.1c commits to “making finance flows consistent with a pathway towards low GHG emissions and climate-resilient development.”

But while COP28 delegates work themselves to tears trying to address the climate crisis, the world’s banks and investors merrily ignore that commitment, and keep the finance flowing to the fossil fuel industry. Furthermore, subsidies are lowering the price of fossil fuel products for consumers, disincentivising the use of renewables.  

Trillions of dollars in loans, underwriting, investments and subsidies flow to the fossil fuel industry every year. Meanwhile, communities on the frontlines of the climate crisis, especially in the global south, suffer the impacts of decisions made in distant boardrooms on the other side of the world. Communities who have done so little to cause the climate crisis are the ones who must deal with deforestation, land grabs and pollution caused by the relentless financing of fossil fuels – all compounded by the injustices of climate change.

It is time to fix the world’s finance flows so that they stop doing harm.
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The science is clear – the 1.5°C target is only achievable if we stop burning fossil fuels. The political reality is also clear – we’re only going to do so if we stop drilling and mining them out of the ground in the first place. Finally, the practical reality is clear – we’re only going to stop this extraction if we do so in a manner that is very widely accepted as fair.  

All this we know. What we don’t know is what it means in practice, on a timeframe that is consistent with the 1.5°C goal, in a world that is starkly divided between wealthy and developing countries, and between rich and poor. Fortunately, a lot of work has already been done on the challenges of rapid extraction phase out, up to and including the equity challenges.

Many of these challenges can be described in terms of capacity and dependency, which is to say capacity to change and dependency on the revenues and jobs associated with fossil-fuel extraction. Some developing countries – South Africa is a fine example, as is India – are high-poverty countries that are highly dependent on coal. Others – including our host the UAE – struck oil a long time ago, and have become wealthy, high-capacity countries with money and resources to buffer the turbulence that will come with its phase out.
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Like the last group at a bar who just won’t leave, the oil and gas industry have overstayed their welcome in New Zealand.

It’s clear to ECO that the nation must ditch its toxic relationship with the fossil fuel industry and commit to renewables.

While governments around the world are calling for a phase out of fossil fuels, it is disappointing to see that  New Zealand is busy playing dirty games, and making promises that will prove to be no more than a fantasy. 

The ruling party has a long love affairs with the fossil fuel industry – from its energy minister promoting “sexy coal” in 2012, to criminalising protests near oil infrastructure in 2013, to now – in 2023 – trying to woe the fossil industry back to bed six years since their last encounter. This time, its attraction is to gas – but it’s clear to ECO that the relationship is doomed to end up in a fling.

The Government claims that this relationship will help it to finally cut ties with Big Coal – but at the same time, amongst friends, it is talking about increasing its investment in that relationship, too.

However, a new report “Closing Time” is clear; there is no future for New Zealand’s  relationships with fossils.
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A single year of emissions from major oil and gas corporations including BP and TotalEnergies could cause at least 360,000 people to die prematurely due to extreme heat and cold by 2100, according to a harrowing study released today by Greenpeace Netherlands. 

The ‘Today’s emissions, tomorrow’s deaths’ study analyses the self-reported 2022 emissions of nine major European oil and gas companies, Shell, TotalEnergies, BP, Equinor, Eni, Repsol, OMV, Orlen, and Wintershall Dea, painting a stark reality of avoidable human losses caused by their greenhouse gas pollution.

“Are fossil fuel companies getting away with murder? Just one year of emissions will create deadly ripples until the end of the century. So, if the fossil fuel industry continues extracting and burning fossil fuels at today’s scale, millions of people all over the world could die prematurely. Phasing out fossil fuels is a matter of life and death, so governments need to act now to ban new fossil fuel projects and force fossil fuel companies to rapidly cut their emissions,” Greenpeace campaigner Lisa Göldner said.

The emissions, totaling 2.7 billion metric tons of CO2, are forecasted to generate at least an estimated 360,000 premature deaths due to extreme heat and cold, however, there are additional risks like air pollution and extreme weather not included in this estimate.
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The excitement at last year’s COP was palpable, with Lula’s Brazil promising to be a breath of fresh air as a climate champion.    
But, as Uncle Ben in Spiderman would say, ‘with great power comes great responsibility’. Brazil is the winner of today’s Fossil of the Day as they appear to have mistaken oil production for climate leadership. Brazil’s dash for oil undermines the efforts of Brazilian negotiators in Dubai who are trying to break old deadlocks and act with a sense of urgency. 

Brazil’s Energy minister, Alexandre Silveira, thought it strangely appropriate to announce membership of Opec+ on day one of the conference. In line with this skewed logic they must be thinking: in for a penny, in for a pound, as they have plans to auction off 603 new oil blocks on December 13, just one day after COP28 ends. This can’t be just a coincidence, right?

According to Agência Pública yesterday, expected emissions from one of the new oil frontiers Brazil wants to open, the Equatorial Margin (which includes blocks at the mouth of the Amazon River) will more than cancel out emission cuts achieved from zero deforestation by 2030. Contrary to what the oil companies tell us, you can’t offset the destruction of an entire ecosystem with one good deed. 
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