ECO Newsletter

It bears repeating: the first Global Stocktake (GST) is a report card on the progress of global climate action and a key guidance for the implementation of the Paris Agreement. 

Countries have gone into this process well aware of the gaps between what is needed and what is being done with respect to all subjects on the report card, knowing how the shortfalls are compromising our global agreement and causing climate devastation around the world. But simply restating this well-known dismal reality is insufficient to meet the intended purpose of the GST.

As discussions turn to the Guidance and Ways Forward, ECO’s expectations are high. How these ‘ways forward’ are articulated could make or break the first GST. In turn, the GST outcome will make or break our ability to limit temperatures to 1.5°C. 

And so ECO is very concerned how far Parties are from a consensus when it comes to putting this down on paper.

Firstly, all countries should have begun the process of determining their 2035 targets within climate plans that meet their fair shares. However, this cannot focus solely on developing and delivering upcoming NDCs for 2035. On top of that, all countries should agree to bring revised NDCs for 2030 showing increased ambition.
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ECO is up to its ears in statements about carbon markets saving us all from climate armageddon. Even the COP presidency managed to graciously find some time in its busy schedule to organize a roundtable on scaling up voluntary carbon markets.

Delegates, we must not be reading the right media articles. Because so far, 2023 has not been sunshine and roses, but instead it’s been quite apocalyptic for carbon markets, with countless scandals emerging. Overestimated emissions reductions, forced displacement, sexual abuse; the list goes on. It has been so bad that, when announcing the US’s new Energy Transition Accelerator (read: carbon offset market), the only positive example of an emission trading market Secretary John Kerry could cite in his speech was a system that (a) didn’t involve carbon offsets, (b) didn’t focus on GHGs, and (c) was implemented 30 years ago!

One big question that still bothers ECO: where is the money? The (self-interested) predictions of banks and consultants describe a market worth tens or hundreds of billions of USD in a few years. Who will actually benefit from this money? Could it be those making the predictions? ECO suspects that is a possibility.

In the voluntary market, intermediaries buy and sell credits with zero transparency.
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ECO has been waiting for the new Global Stocktake draft text like a child waits for their birthday presents. And finally, yesterday morning, the overly caffeinated and highly sleep-deprived co-facilitators ended our wait. The present ECO was hoping for was a decision to phase out fossil fuels and triple renewables. But ECO is not a spoiled child who always gets what it wants. Despite the disappointment, we can still help you with some constructive feedback to deliver a better gift before end of COP28.

Here are our seven key points on the GST draft text:

1. Getting the urgency memo: We need further action to accelerate the decline of fossil fuels. Not in 20 or 30 years, but in this decade.
2. Tripling to substitute: Great to see that you have language on tripling renewable energy by 2030. But let’s spice up the renewables language by not just tripling them, but also making it clear that renewables will replace fossil fuels while respecting human rights and nature.
3. Para 36 – Weak Sauce Alert on differentiation: The text should unequivocally state that developed countries must take the lead in phasing out all fossil fuels and tripling renewables.
4. Don’t be stingy: The energy package (FFPO, EE, RE) needs to include support language that makes it clear to developing countries that the transition will be enabled by grant-based public climate finance, in line with PA 4.5.

Did delegates notice the collision of two worlds at the COP yesterday?  ECO saw an action by the Kick Big Polluters Out campaign at the entrance to the venue while recently released research showed that the number of lobbyists has increased to 2456 at this COP. This is four times the size that attended COP27.  This number of representatives of the fossil fuel industry is more than the combined number of delegates from the 10 most vulnerable countries! 

Meanwhile, TotalEnergies CEO Patrick Pouyanné was strutting around in the Blue Zone with an interesting badge. Guess whose badge he’s on? He was proudly wearing his party overflow accreditation from France. 

It is clear that what is meant by “the most inclusive COP ever” is that it is the most inclusive for fossil fuel lobbyists.

ECO knows it is no coincidence that the delegates are struggling to agree on a fast, fair, and funded fossil fuel phase-out in the GST. The fossil fuel lobbyists are polluting the COP space. 

ECO thinks it is outrageous to have the firestarters participate in a conference that has to extinguish the fires. 

ECO loves tripling — for instance clean renewables by 2030, efforts to protect the environment, organic and fair trade food, medical care for the poor, education efforts, time with family and friends, the consumption of delicious ice cream and the victories of our beloved football teams. 

But hang on…does that mean all tripling is good? For the 22 countries which agreed to triple nuclear power by 2050: the answer is no. 

The Nuclear Gang consists of the United States, Bulgaria, Canada, Czech Republic, Finland, France, Ghana, Hungary, Japan, the Republic of Korea, Moldova, Mongolia, Morocco, Netherlands, Poland, Romania, Slovakia, Slovenia, Sweden, Ukraine, United Arab Emirates, and the United Kingdom.

This list contains all G7 countries, with the laudable exemption of Germany, and does not include G20 powerhouses like China, India and Indonesia. But the Netherlands, the country with likely the highest solar power share globally in its electricity mix? Or Ukraine, ECO asks? Any sad lessons learned from the super-dangerous attacks on existing nuclear power stations during the recent and ongoing war by Russia? Hungary, with autocrat Orban banking on support from Rosatom, the nuclear power manufacturer from Russia, is no surprise.

 ECO is struggling to understand the economic, technological and environmental wisdom of these 22 governments to embark on this risky endeavor, and here’s why:

Nuclear power presently has 10% of the global electricity supply. ECO insists
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ECO has had a long day and night, as Parties streamline the Just Transition Work Programme text. Which options will survive the (needed) simplification of the negotiating text?

Will inclusive, rights-based just transitions become a reality across diverse geographic, political and economic conditions? 

Just Transition will not happen only through the sharing of domestic experiences. We need a Work Programme which recommends decisions that lead to actual actions, and delivers what our workers and communities need. 

Just Transition will only happen if workers (both formal and informal, in sectors directly impacted by climate measures, and in those that are often invisible, such as care workers), their unions, and communities are at the centre.

Just Transition will only happen if rights – human, labour, gender, Indigenous Peoples – are respected and if rights-holders are explicitly recognised in this decision. 

Just Transition will only happen if we seize this unique opportunity to connect climate action with the pressing challenge of securing dignity for all, out of poverty, exclusion and oppression, and if we do it within the multilateral system, with international cooperation and support. 

In a few hours, ECO will read the outcomes of the informal conversations Parties have been holding behind closed doors.
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ECO is happy to share this part of our publication with the Indigenous Peoples Caucus(IPO) to help amplify their voice. This article reflects the views of the IPO.

Just days after the announcement of major commitments and implementation of a Loss and Damage Fund, news broke that the COP28 President had claimed that there is “no science” behind a phase-out of fossil fuels. This statement feels like a slap in the face to the countless reports and calls for meaningful action made by Indigenous Peoples, civil society movements, and numerous states that clearly articulate a need to phase out fossil fuels if we have any chance of staying below the global goal of 1.5℃. As Indigenous Peoples, this is especially concerning as we continue to bear the brunt of climate disasters that are already resulting in evictions from our ancestral lands, waterways, territories, and lifeways.  

The COP Presidency’s deal on the Loss and Damage Fund was met with a lacklustre response by many States, whose financial commitments for Loss and Damage don’t even begin to compensate for the losses we have already felt. One can’t help but wonder – how can the Nation states even begin to estimate the value of our loss of land, language, and culture that’s already happened let alone the loss that will continue if their so-called solutions continue to miss the mark?
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Nobody deserves Fossil of the Day more than the world’s largest oil and gas producer, who also happens to be the largest gas and petroleum product exporter and is responsible for over one-third of all planned oil and gas expansion. We are, of course, talking about the USA. 

The US is also weakening the possibility for COP28 to adopt a full, fast, fair, and funded fossil fuel phaseout. Their support for inserting unabated fossil fuels into the cover text ignores the science and the grave health and climate injustice impacts of carbon capture and storage and other dangerous “abatement” technologies. Any further expansion of fossil fuels endangers especially Black, Brown, and Indigenous residents in the U.S. and poisons Global South communities. Over two million people have died from climate-related disasters in the last 50 years, and this is just the tip of the iceberg.

Runner-Up – Russia

Our next deserving recipient of a Fossil is doing their best to undermine the Paris Agreement and our collective climate action as a whole. Russia, for the last time, gas is not green and it certainly isn’t a transition fuel. Despite your resistance at COP28  to the phase-out of fossil fuels in the GST, the renewable revolution is here, and countries are scaling up the deployment of clean power generation and energy efficiency measures. 
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