ECO Newsletter

Symphonies are works of genius. Composing them requires foresight, precision and consideration of the role of every individual within the orchestra. In the context of ambition and climate change, ECO has been thinking about how we can all play from the same music sheet. Ideas like a global review strike the right chord, but Parties remain out of tune. Bonn’s slow staccato of progress is not moving toward the great symphony where the world moves to close the gap in ambition that the Parties have put forward for up until 2020. But that’s not all—the INDCs don’t sound any better. By Paris, Parties need to be in harmony.

A Paris Ambition Mechanism (PAM) must conduct all of the right sounds in this global orchestra. Here’s a three point plan:

1. A strong process agreed, in COP decisions, to review the implementation and sufficiency of the Kyoto targets and Cancun pledges, as well as the level of support. Parties, particularly developed countries, must check their efforts and ensure that they scale these up to close the pre-2020 ambition gap. The WS2 decision must also build a process that can unlock additional mitigation and adaptation action through continuous collaboration between Parties.

2. The COP21 decisions on INDCs must require that Parties assess their proposed efforts and come back with greatly increased NDCs before 2020 to get on at least a 2°C pathway, or better, 1.5°C.
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ECO is heartened to see that language on emissions from ships and planes is back in the negotiating text. If these sectors are left out of the Paris agreement, they have emissions that are not only large enough but, also growing fast enough to undermine global efforts to stay below 1.5°C.

In the words of one developing country active on the issue, these emissions have the potential to create major loopholes in the global emissions limitations and environmental integrity. Under a 1.5°C scenario they could count for up to 42% of allowable emissions.

Left to their own devices, the UN bodies regulating these sectors, the IMO and ICAO, show little willingness to seriously tackle GHG emissions. The IMO refuses to even think of a cap and ICAO is happy with the idea of offsetting emission increases after 2020. Both industries show little concern for the climate needs of the developing world.

The Paris agreement needs to address this issue explicitly and send a clear message to IMO and ICAO: now is the time to start reducing your sectoral emissions.

ECO nearly had a heart attack when it saw that Total and other fossil fuel companies were allowed into the NAZCA platform and LPAA webpage. Maybe this is just a fever dream brought on by nights spent lying awake, thinking of polluters. ECO is hopeful that the LPAA partners will apply some fundamental rules to this party before it gets out of control.

Yes, ECO is aware that some vague participation «criteria» have been decided already, but the door is still wide open to gate crashers. Existing participation rules must be strengthened and strictly applied, so they can act as a bouncer at the door before everybody gets in.

Before we pop open the champagne, the basic rules and principles written on the invitation card must be significantly strengthened. They include: a transparent selection process; compliance with international human rights law; environmental and social integrity; safeguards on land and resources tenure; and the promotion of food sovereignty.

Then there’s the guest list needed for the party that will continue until the sun rises. The LPAA must take a closer look at the RSVPs and invite independent party chaperons from civil society to help review and evaluate the process from which invitations were made.
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Pop quiz time. Question one: Do you remember when G20 leaders pledged to eliminate fossil fuel subsidies? That bold and necessary pledge took place in 2009 and was greeted with much rejoicing. Question two: Do you remember the date when those fossil fuel subsidies actually got eliminated?

ECO doesn’t know, either—because it’s never actually happened.

Six years on, it’s time to stop sitting around and waiting. On November 14, citizens around the world will mobilise in the streets and online, calling for world leaders to #Stop Funding Fossils.

The momentum and pressure to stop funding fossil fuels has been growing globally in response to rising concerns about the damage carbon pollution is having on the people and places we love. Businesses, local governments, faith organisations, pension funds, and other public institutions are jumping on board as part of the wildly successful divestment movement. And yet, even with all this support, national governments have failed to act.

But it’s not too late! Between now and Paris, whether through new, substantive commitments at the G20 or by ending export credits for coal through the OECD, there are opportunities to achieve real victories. Not the kind of wins that depend on vague promises for the future, but the kind that involve the actual removal of all fossil fuel  subsidies..
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Setting up a first date is a nerve-racking process. ECO has been there: spending hours overanalysing the details of what your crush did or didn’t say, writing vague texts that don’t express what you really mean, trying to play it cool by acting non-committal…

Always keen to give out relationship advice, ECO couldn’t help noticing that Parties’ discussions on the first date of the global assessment (still called a “stocktake” for  the moment) are in dire need of a helping hand—not to mention their caginess around further developments for the ambition mechanism. Here are ECO’s top tips for Parties on setting a date with destiny for a long-lasting relationship based on mutual understanding and trust:

Don’t delay! It might seem scary, but someone has to initiate and suggest a clear date for your first get together. Why wait? You’re only delaying making your dreams of a fossil fuel-free future a reality! Don’t let all the intensity that’s been building up before Paris go to waste. ECO reckons the first date for an assessment to raise ambition should happen well ahead of 2020. Who’s going to seize the day and suggest 2018? Don’t forget, you need agreement on this in Paris to avoid being stood up!
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Observers are savouring more than just the chocolate muffins since their exclusion from negotiations. ECO’s inbox has overflowed with updates and inside scoops, suggesting they can learn more about the negotiations by not being in the room. More positively still, these reveal some remarkable breakthroughs that have occurred since they were banished.

Firstly, the US has performed an impressive backflip and both endorsed Loss and Damage as a stand alone section and committed an annual 0.7% of GDP to financing it. As one US negotiator explained, «This backflip is in our national interest. We are deeply concerned about our projected gymnastics medal count at the 2016 Olympics and really need to practice».

A breakthrough on human rights was also achieved. Apparently, after tasting the «Mango Heaven» smoothie (following ECO’s recommendation), negotiators from Saudi Arabia came to a newfound appreciation of human rights and are now supporting their comprehensive integration throughout the document.

Furthermore, Australia has convinced the Umbrella Group to accept major compromises on both mitigation and the long-term goal. This follows a bilateral with Marty McFly, who arrived yesterday from 1985, shocked to see that a comprehensive agreement to limit global warming had still not been signed. Strong language on decarbonisation and ratcheting up unconditional INDCs are now to be included.
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Delegates, you well know that ECO has lamented, time and time again, that the EU’s reduction targets for 2020 and 2030 are inadequate, below business as usual, and in general an embarrassment to the continent that once was the leader in global climate action.

This week’s news from the European Environment Agency has again proven our point: the latest EU numbers show that greenhouse gas emission fell 4% between 2013 and 2014. This brings the EU’s domestic emissions down to 23% below 1990 levels, and will most likely lead to below 30% by 2020. ECO reminds delegates that the EU’s current 2020 reduction commitment is 20% below 1990.

Done. Many years ahead of time.

“What should the EU do now?” you may ask. As far as ECO can see, the only action the EU is taking in response is to engage in self-praise and nothing more. We all know that there is more to be done, so, EU, listen up:

• Commit to implementing your conditional 30% by 2020 target (which will happen without any extra effort).

• Cancel the vast surplus of emission allowances weighing down your carbon market to ensure that the 2030 target will not be made meaningless with carry-over of old reductions.

Capacity building is generally perceived as a low priority. It’s an old-school component that all Parties want (including Annex 1 Parties) and is critical to other issues such as mitigation, adaptation, technology transfer and finance. Accordingly, it suffers from being everybody’s darling—and thereby ultimately no one’s.

For this reason, ECO was surprised to learn that capacity building has becoming contentious within  the draft text. Developing countries have proposed a new mechanism and/or committee which can act as a focal point for capacity building under the SBI to ensure coherence and coordination with the other negotiating tracks. The rationale is similar to the squabble with adaptation some years ago when Parties accepted that there was a need for an Adaptation Committee.

The time has come to breathe new life into capacity building with a new mechanism that makes it meaningful to developing countries, that need it most, through increased coherence and coordination.

There is incredible global momentum on climate change. People, everywhere, are standing up and demanding that their governments take action and are having an impact. Such an impact that many of the biggest polluters have also taken notice and are scrambling to get on the right side of history—but only at first blush; let’s not forget that corporate lobbying and corporately funded climate denialism are all-too-familiar phenomena.

For example, the Oil and Gas Climate Initiative released a report calling for a price on carbon and investment in carbon capture and sequestration. Then there’s Shell and BHP’s newly announced commission to advise governments on climate policy. The problem isn’t just outside the UNFCCC process.

Within the negotiations, major carbon polluters seek to institutionalise their participation and influence. COP21 will be sponsored by corporations that have contributed—and continue to contribute—significantly to the climate crisis. Case in point: Électricité de France and Engie’s current coal operations account for nearly half of France’s energy emissions.

The Lima-Paris Action Agenda (LPAA) raises serious questions regarding corporate conflicts of interest what with the inclusion of fossil fuel companies like Total, a corporation widely known to undermine climate policy in Europe.

Fortunately, numerous recent developments have exposed the truth behind the lies advanced by polluting industries like big coal and big oil.
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