Category: Previous Issues Articles

Crystal Ball of Climate Finance

Running from one meeting room to the next and eating many a crêpe must be tiresome for ministers. But fear not, ECO is here to summarise the crucial things on climate finance for our new arrivals.

If ECO had a crystal ball for climate finance in future years, this is what it would show:

  1. Climate finance needs a level of certainty. In a post-2020 world, this could be met by setting collective targets for financial support. To keep us on track, these targets should be reviewed and updated every five years, with separate targets for mitigation and adaptation. This leaves no room for error in our crystal ball predictions.
  2. Developed countries should continue to lead the way in providing financial support after 2020. In fact, ECO’s crystal ball foresees that starting with at least US$100 billion annually provided by developed countries.
  3. The crystal ball envisions the growing role of other countries, with an accent on South-South cooperation, to complement developed countries—based on comparable responsibilities, capabilities and stages of development.
  4. Flows of finance that align the goals of the Convention. In other words, moving all money out of dirty, polluting energy and into low-emission, climate resilient actions—something we can all look forward to.

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Oil Minister Wins Fossil Award for Saudi Arabia

[Monday’s] first place Fossil of the Day Award goes, once again, to Saudi Arabia! In the high-level Ministerial discussions Ali al-Naimi the Saudi Oil Minister (come again?) said we cannot discriminate between clean and dirty fuels, a statement that fundamentally undermines what everyone is trying to achieve at the Paris Climate Summit.

This statement totally ignores the science that says we have to keep 2/3rds of fossil fuels in the ground to prevent catastrophic climate change and fails to acknowledge the reasons for the shift to renewable energy that is happening around the world. The Saudi’s have attempted to block a meaningful long term goal that could serve as a guiding light for the fossil fuel phase out and a shift to 100% renewable energy for all. On top of all this Saudi Arabia pushed back on a 1.5°C degree temperature target – despite the climate impacts already being felt across the region.

On a positive note we have a Ray of the Day to award to the Philippines for taking the stage during today’s Ministerial statements, soon after Saudi Arabia, to promote a meaningful long term goal to stabilise global temperatures and to to decarbonise our economies. Strong stuff, well done!


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Non, Je Ne Regrette Rien

Non, Rien de rien
(No, nothing of nothing)
Non, Je ne regrette rien
(No, I regret nothing)



Dear Ministers: Welcome to Paris. As you have no doubt already seen, negotiating texts have been prepared for you. A bit chaotic perhaps, but good enough, and all the options are on the table.

You also have probably realized that two very different deals could be assembled out of these options. The first deal might be called the no-regrets deal. That’s the deal that allows all of us to leave Paris with a fighting chance to keep warming to 1.5°C.

The other deal that could be pieced together out of these options is often referred to here in the hallways of Le Bourget as the ‘minimalist deal’. But it might be more accurately called the 3-degrees deal.

ECO wants to make sure you leave COP21 with zero regrets, content and with the knowledge that you have done your utmost to deliver an ambitious and equitable outcome that addresses the needs of the most vulnerable.

There are many tell-tales for recognizing the 3-degrees deal. The most telling point might be the proposal that we don’t return to the table to assess our progress and ramp up ambition until 2024.


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Transparency: Just a Castle on a Cloud?

The French government made a commitment to civil society: this would be a transparent and participatory COP. Instead, from day one we have been banned from meetings where decisions are actually made.

Civil society’s role is to shed light on this process, to ensure that our governments protect their people’s best interests—not the interests of corporate lobbies resisting the transition.

Negotiating behind closed doors undermines the ability of civil society to ensure the accountability of governments and the UNFCCC process, thus pushing for a fairer and more ambitious agreement.  It also adversely affects developing countries, which rely on civil society for technical support they cannot otherwise afford.

Behold, there is at least one defender. ECO is grateful to Malaysia for speaking on behalf of the Like Minded Group of Developing Countries, for its consistent call for greater transparency in this process. The EU, US, Australia and other industrialised countries are a different story. Not only have they failed to challenge the closed-door policy, they have hidden behind it.

We demand access to the negotiations.

SOS: Save Our 2050 Strategies

To keep global temperature increase to 1.5°C, and avoid the worst impacts of climate change, decarbonisation is an urgent need. We need national plans firmly set in place that focus on near-term action, coupled with long-term decarbonisation. Furthermore, climate resilience will help to avoid locking in high carbon infrastructure and address climate vulnerabilities.

In Cancun, Parties agreed that they would create low-carbon development strategies. ECO and others are again promoting this implementation tool. These plans must be a durable element of the Paris outcome, in the core Agreement, and not end  up in the decisions. Of course, developing countries must be provided with support to create and implement their strategies.

In these nationally appropriate strategies, countries should lay out a trajectory for decarbonisation by 2050, with indicative targets for 2030 and 2040. Details of the policies and measures to achieve low carbon and climate resilient development for the next 5 years should be aligned with the cycles in the UNFCCC.

Focusing on national implementation will also ensure that the plans are appropriate for each country’s special circumstances. By doing this, we can ensure that there is confidence that all countries are participating.

Below 1.5–to Stay Alive

Last week’s Joint Contact Group (JCG) on the 2013-2015 review failed to come to a single conclusion on its three year work, which had included the ‘Structured Expert Dialogue’ (SED). SED’s findings were: 1)We are not on track to a ‘below 2°C path’. 2) 2°C warming would be dangerous. 3) Keeping warming to below 1.5°C would avoid many disastrous impacts.

ECO points to the need to include the 1.5 degree goal in the new agreement based on common but differentiated responsibilities and strong financial support and technical assistance to developing countries. We are also seeing intriguing shifts. The EU said in SBI last Friday that limiting warming to 2 degrees is not enough for vulnerable countries. Germany, France, Italy and Australia have announced in the last days that they want a 1.5° goal to be included in the agreement.

Article 3.3 of the Convention requires precautionary measures, and ‘where there are threats of serious or irreversible damage, lack of full scientific certainty should not be used as a reason’ not to act. So let’s act! Over to the COP President to take the results of these excellent three years of intensive work and make the conclusions public and official to the COP.

The Gap In the Text

ECO is disappointed that Parties seem to have all agreed on the ‘no text’ options for the following numbers:
The emissions gap: [The emissions gap in 2020 is estimated to be 8-12 Gigatonnes] [The emissions gap in 2030 based on the current INDCs is estimated to be 12-18 Gigatonnes]
The adaptation gap: [The Adaptation finance needs alone will be USD 150 billion per annum by 2025 (even if we were on track for 2°C) yet the starting point for climate finance in 2020 is only USD 100 billion per annum]
The finance gap: [Recent analysis by the International Energy Agency finds that we need to up to $2 trillion annually worldwide by 2035 for the energy transition. This will require at least $166 billion in public finance per year]

These numbers are real, even if they do not appear in any text. Without a strong process to address these gaps, the Paris outcome will  be little more than an agreement to leave the leaders of 2030 with an insurmountable challenge. Instead, the Paris outcome could ensure that the gaps are filled:

1) Parties should agree to a five-year cycle where intended targets (for finance and mitigation) and contributions (for adaptation) are submitted well in advance of each commitment period.


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LPAA: No Gate Crashers

Saturday was the Action Day—a big party to celebrate initiatives by non-state actors, subnational entities and national governments. While ECO would like to dance the night away with some guests that promote real solutions benefiting people and climate, like renewable energy and energy efficiency, ECO would hate to have gate crashers. That includes false solutions and greenwashing big polluters, such as Total and other members of the Oil and Gas Methane Partnership.

Companies and initiatives that are not serious about the transition to a world without fossil fuel emissions simply should not be part of the LPAA, and business as usual in any of the 12 sectors of the LPAA is not acceptable.

Initiatives should have to provide real and significant benefits, in terms of emissions reductions or enhanced resilience. They should set themselves specific and measurable commitments and be willing to follow up on them with regular reporting. ECO wants to stress that initiatives also need to respect principles such as human rights, environmental integrity, and food sovereignty. Such criteria should be enshrined not only in the LPAA, but also in the Workstream 2 decision to inform high-level events in the future. And without a bouncer (ombudsperson), it won’t be much of a party.

Staying Below 1.5oC Is Not Just About Science. It Is a Moral Imperative.

 

All countries questioning the urgent need to include a long-term goal to keep temperatures below 1.5°C should check their conscience.

For countries that have suffered the wrath of climate-related extreme events due to the current 1°C temperature increase, any attempt to negotiate a further increase in temperature is a violation of the right to life of many human beings and threatens the existence of ecosystems and species. Countries that have already been impacted by the hazards of climate change often do not have the time to adapt. They are therefore are at risk of loss and damage. Their realities must be reflected in the Paris Agreement.

The Association of Southeast Asian Nations, in recognition of the risks faced by its member countries, is calling for accelerated investments in disaster risk reduction and adaptation. Support for inclusive resilience and risk management needs to be scaled up. It also needs to be sensitive to gender, culture and the needs of the most vulnerable. This is what ECO calls for in the decisions on loss and damage and adaptation for COP21.

Changes in the global climate system have already triggered enormous hazards. These have cost thousands of lives and put significant assets at risk in the most vulnerable countries.
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