Category: Previous Issues Articles

How Do You Count to 100?

Transparent systems for accounting and tracking climate finance flows are fundamental to the success of the Paris Agreement. ECO notes how some naughty players are including some types projects where the relevancy to climate is, at best, questionable. Some are also relying heavily on reporting non-concessional finance that adds on new debt for developing countries, making their support look bigger. This does not fit with the spirit of Articles 4.3 and 4.4 of the Agreement.

ECO would like to remind Parties of paragraph 57 of Decision 1/CP.21, which calls for the elaboration of “modalities for the accounting of financial resources”. Fulfilment of this mandate can help overcome tensions about what counts and what doesn’t, alongside what kind of financial support has been delivered. ECO sees five fundamental elements of an accounting system:

1) We need to get agreement on what counts. Projects that promote the continued use of coal or non-conventional fossil fuels, such as shale gas, will only undermine credibility and must be excluded. Certain types of financial flows, such as export credits and market-rate loans, cannot be counted as assistance because they do not follow the meaning of Articles 4.3 and 4.4. To better understand the net value of support provided, all financial instruments should be accounted for in grant equivalent terms.
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Which Way Forward for the Technology Framework?

Paris delivered the Technology Framework to advance more rapid demonstration and implementation of climate-friendly technologies. This included building on existing efforts such as Technology Needs Assessments (TNAs) and the Technology Action Plans (TAPs), and improving the effectiveness of the Technology Executive Committee (TEC) and the Climate Technology Centre and Network (CTCN). The first meeting of the TEC this year got down to business on that front, with a South-South/circular cooperation thematic dialogue.

We know that, under this framework, developed countries are not specifically on the hook to provide support, but demonstrations and implementation cannot happen without funding. As such, the SBSTA should put forward a sustainable funding model for the TEC and CTCN (e.g. through country pledges), as well as ways to support developing countries in their pursuit of financial support from the GCF and/or other UNFCCC financial mechanisms.

SBSTA should also delineate criteria on how to assess technologies that are ready for transfer, and mandate the TEC to carry out such an assessment, which, amongst other things, should report on the development stage of a technology, its commercialisation prospects, its current penetration in relevant developing countries’ markets, and the risk assessment undertaken by producers and providers.

SBSTA should facilitate technology transactions by identifying ways to link domestic technology transfer offices based in universities or national research institutions to international platforms, such as WIPO Green.
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Driving Implementation Through Climate Education and Public Participation

In Paris, Parties committed to enhancing climate change education, training, public participation, awareness and access to information (collectively known as “Action for Climate Empowerment” or ACE). This commitment builds on Article 6 of the Convention and forms a fundamental pillar of the Agreement. Here in Bonn, the SBI is making preparations for the Doha Work Programme on Article 6 to undergoes a mid-term review at COP22 in Marrakech.

The result of this review should be national policies that enhance expert and local knowledge and, increase public awareness of both the challenges posed by climate change and the solutions. This is critical in cementing public support for decisive climate action.

ECO has some suggestions on how to use the review to further promote Article 6 implementation:

1) The Doha Work Program must include more concrete activities and guidance to ensure the effective implementation of Article 6.  For example, multi-stakeholder workshops should be organised at the regional/sub-regional level and involve policy-makers from relevant ministries, private sector, civil society, including women and youth representatives.

2) The role of national Focal Points for Article 6 should be strengthened, by increasing their interactions with national stakeholders and through the establishment of a robust network for international communication and collaboration.  
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From Promises to Delivery

The Paris Agreement sets a clear vision for the world to keep global temperature rise to 1.5°C, through a full decarbonisation of the global economy. It also provides a framework to improve action on mitigation, adaptation and finance through regular reviews and renewed commitments – for all countries simultaneously.

With the Paris Agreement clearly setting out the task that lays ahead, this year Parties need to create provisions under the Paris Agreement that will enable, incentivise and enforce action at a national level. This requires a delicate balancing of provisions that enable national action and those that create obligations. Civil society has an important stake in this process and must be listened to.

We cannot forget that current commitments are wholly inadequate to keep warming to 1.5°C. At current emission levels, we will use up our entire 1.5°C compatible carbon budget by 2020.  Urgent action is needed now. The Technical Examination Process (TEP) should focus on identifying actionable solutions that can close the gigatonne gap and the barriers to these solutions. But identifying solutions is not enough – the newly appointed champions for pre-2020 action should produce a scenario note for the next 2 years showing how they intend to address barriers and enable actual implementation.
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Paris’s Unfinished Business: Climate Finance

While the Paris Agreement achieved some milestones; it did not in climate finance. Assistance to poor countries, especially for adaptation to defend the livelihoods of their peoples against a warming climate, remains unfinished business. The future is bleak. Based on announcements made by developed countries last year, ECO has seen estimates that adaptation-specific support (if counted on grant or grant equivalent basis) is likely to be just US$6-9bn a year by 2020.

ECO’s hopes now lie in paragraph 114 of 1/CP.21 that urges developed countries to prepare a 2020 roadmap to demonstrate how they intend to meet the $100bn promise. Unless those countries intend to damage the good spirit we’ve seen in and since Paris, they ought to heed ECO’s advice and get working, so that COP22 can welcome a finalised roadmap. If ECO had a go at it, the roadmap would offer scenarios for the variety of instruments and channels available, and indicate how much annual adaptation support will amounted to by 2020. It’s a no-brainer that the roadmap would be prepared jointly with developing countries, starting at this week’s LTF workshop.

Then again, the value of roadmaps depends on how the finance itself is counted. Work on that front is spread across the agendas of all the three bodies.
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Making the Right(s) Choices

Monday morning, and back in Bonn.

Paris sent a strong signal on the need for urgent action to tackle climate change to protect the most marginalised peoples and communities. It’s time for parties to start the hard work of translating language on human rights, into actual protections on the ground.

Last year, countries explicitly recognised that all climate actions must respect human rights, the rights of indigenous peoples, gender equality, ecosystem integrity and intergenerational equity, while ensuring for food security and a just transition to a clean energy economy.

The first step is to find a space for a cross-cutting dialogue about how human rights are integrated. The French and Moroccan presidencies should join forces to seek a specific outcome in Marrakesh.

Second, governments must promote cooperation to integrate human rights into national climate actions. The review of guidelines for Annex-1 national communications and the ongoing capacity building work provide opportunities for Parties to exchange best practices. This also includes supporting developing countries with the implementation of rights-based policies and measures.

Finally, Parties should ensure that all policies and projects implemented under the UNFCCC respect human rights. For instance, the Sustainable Development Mechanism must have robust safeguards, monitoring and accountability processes.
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Aviation and Shipping: Friends or Foes of Paris Goals?

When the Paris Agreement failed to specifically mention international aviation and shipping, these industries assured ECO that they would deliver ambitious measures in 2016. With these emissions falling outside of NDCs, these commitments had better be included because if they either were counted as countries, they’d each rank as top ten emitters! Both are projected to double or even treble by 2050, and keeping warming to 1.5ºC is impossible unless they are both on board.

Five months on and these commitments are very shaky. In February, ICAO adopted an efficiency standard which delays action until 2028! In ICAO’s talks last week on a global offsetting scheme, talk of delays and exemptions threatens to fatally undermine the measure’s ambition.

Despite support from industry and most of the governments present, recent IMO negotiations for a fair contributions to global efforts were also rocky. Attempts at progress were thwarted by BRICSA countries, a few other larger developing countries, and the Cook Islands. They argued for waiting until the IMO’s currently non-existent system of MRV for ship emissions start to produce data, at some unknown point in the distant future. ECO isn’t convinced, given the abundance of data available thanks to recent IMO and IPCC studies.
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Ambition: Don’t Leave Paris Without It

As we move into the final hours of the climate negotiations here in Paris, the outcome could go one of two ways. We will either achieve a Paris agreement that accelerates the transition to a global economy based on 100% renewable energy, allows us to avoid the worst impacts of climate change, and helps vulnerable countries cope with the impacts they are already experiencing. Or we will leave Paris with a least common denominator agreement that sees important elements left on the cutting room floor. ECO insists that ministers overcome their differences and work together to craft the ambitious, effective, and balanced agreement that the world expects, needs and demands.

Such an agreement must include a reference to limit the temperature increase to 1.5 degrees and a long-term goal that makes it clear to investors, businesses, and citizens that the fossil fuel age is over, and the transition to the age of renewables is unstoppable. It must include five-year cycles for review and revision of INDCS, with the first review by the end of this decade. With continued declines in the costs of renewable energy and efficiency technologies, all countries should be in position to increase the level of ambition of their initial INDCs before they are finalized in the new agreement.
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Cheat Sheet for Putting Us on the Path to a Safe, Just Climate Future Ambition Mechanism

Ambition Mechanism

To Keep!
Look at INDCs in 2019/20 (paras 20, 23, 24) with 5 yearly stocktaking of actions (Art. 10)
Submission of new NDC every five years on common timeframes from 2030 (Article 3.8 and 3.9) with no backsliding (Art. 3.3) and each new NDC “should” be a progression over the  previous one (Articles 3.6)

To Be Improved!
Delete “in the period after 2025 and 2030”; current INDCs need to be improved (para 17)
Facilitative dialogue (para 20) to happen in 2018 to give clear guidance on scaling up INDCs.
Parties to revisit and revise upwards their 2030 targets (para 23, 24)

Equity, Fairness and Differentiation

To Keep!
Differentiation reflected in Operative Articles, a good starting point
Article 2 in context of CBDR & RC
Global stocktake in context of equity and science
To Be Improved!
2bis must not be deleted
Progression text should mention both CBDR&RC and stages of development to achieve balance  Article 2: the Paris Agreement should be “implemented on the basis of” equity, CBDRB, and national circumstances
Article 3.1 also mention stages of development.

Human Rights and Environmental Integrity Principles

To Keep!
Environmental Integrity and avoidance of double-counting (Art. 3.12, 3.20); no double-counting in 3terr.
Technology Needs Assessment, including socially and environmentally sound”” criteria (D.77(d)
To Be Improved!
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‘Round Midnight

As ECO went to press, the Committée de Paris had just resumed its work again. The outcome of the final round of negotiations is still uncertain. That need not stand in the way of a hard-nosed analysis of the new text, though, with the really big issues still left to be decided. Overall, ambiguity is the mot de vogue with several decisions still bracketed yesterday now ‘simply’ postponed. ECO makes a final plea to ministers and their heads of state, who will be asked to weigh in at the last minute:

Ambition
Parties chose to land in the ‘well below 2°C’ zone, while still pursuing a 1.5°C warming limit. This is, however, not compatible with GHG emission neutrality somewhere in the second half of this century. Full decarbonisation, with no tricks (like non-permanent offsetting and geoengineering), is needed and should be what those who claim to be ambitious fight for!

Differentiation
The endless variations in the new text trying to reframe the Convention’s preambular ‘common but differentiated responsibilities and respective capabilities and their social and economic conditions,’ [ECO’s emphasis] are a reflection of a genuine global struggle to come to terms with new realities. ECO does not romanticise the past, nor ignore historical responsibilities.


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