Category: Previous Issues Articles

Today, 6th June, marks the start of the elections for the European Parliament. Countries will go to the polls until Sunday. ECO hopes that all delegates have cast their ballots and do not miss out due to presence here in Bonn. Every vote against anti-democratic, authoritarian-leaning and often climate-denying groups is needed to accelerate the path started with the European Green Deal. 

But as we approach a new EU policy cycle on the critical road to Baku and Belem, what actually is the state of play on the next EU NDC?

ECO hears that the veil will only begin to lift after the elections. According to EU processes, the agreement on an intermediate 2040 target on the way to the bloc’s 2050 climate neutrality goal will be a key step for an NDC. The European Commission put a proposal on the table for net reductions of 90% by 2040, compared to 1990 levels, in its Communication in early February with a strong reliance on carbon capture. Unfortunately, it made no indication to upgrade the 2030 target. 

Since then, there have been technical exchanges and minister-level deliberations. However, ECO is concerned that a clear political pathway to deliver an ambitious NDC in time for the February 2025 deadline is not yet on the table!
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ECO was pleased to read the International Energy Agency’s (IEA) new report on the renewable energy ambitions of 150 countries in light of the goal agreed at COP28 of tripling renewable electric capacity worldwide by 2030 from 2022 levels. Among the key findings:

Only 14 governments have quantified their domestic renewable power objectives for 2030 in their NDCs; if implemented, they would add up to a mere 12% of the tripling target, most of this from China.

Even after aggregating the data from all kinds of non-NDC domestic announcements and targets, the IEA finds we’re only on track to reach 8,000 GW of renewable energy capacity by 2030 – 3,000 GW less than the over 11,000 GW we need to stay in line with 1.5°C.

But there is some good news: actual deployment of renewables has been growing much faster than the ambition of governments (though most of this is in the OECD countries, China and India).

Governments must urgently close this gap, by making accelerated renewables deployment goals part of their next round of NDCs, enabling some level of international scientific review on their adequacy. 

The IEA examination of both existing and likely new policies finds that China, Germany, the US, India, and Spain are delivering the bulk of the current action when it comes to renewables deployment; trailing behind particularly are Sub-Saharan Africa and the OPEC countries.
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You may have noticed with delight the recent increase in food-related language in ECO, through lengthy cooking metaphors and kitchen-based prose. ECO cannot help but hope that this might translate into good language on food and agriculture making its way forward into the UNFCCC itself.

After two years of twists and turns, the recent progress in the Sharm El Sheikh Joint Work on agriculture and food security is starting to look interesting. But ECO was horrified to find, rotting in a corner of the language cupboard, an old and mouldy footnote explaining the term ‘sustainable agriculture’. The footnote reflects a random jumble of passing corporate fads and dangerous ideas including climate-smart agriculture, biotechnologies and even AI, alongside more credible concepts such as agroecology.  As it was produced a year ago at SB58, we assumed it was long past its expiry date. Alas, we forgot that Big Ag’s products are full of preservatives and cannot be composted so easily. 

ECO urges negotiators to avoid indigestion or even food poisoning by reframing workshop topics around systemic and holistic approaches, those that prioritize rights-based and agroecological pathways for food systems transformation, address the need for shifts to healthy and sustainable diets accessible for all, and reduce food loss and waste.
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ECO could not be more excited about the start of the annual GST dialogue, and in particular the first roundtable on “integrating GST Outcomes into the updating and preparation of NDCs“. In case the Dubai flaring fumes impacted delegates’ memory, ECO would like to kindly remind that COP28 agreed to a “transition away from fossil fuels in energy systems in a just, orderly and equitable manner”, an outcome called “historic” by many. 

Today is a good day to remember that agreement, because yesterday the UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres called out “the Godfathers of climate chaos” in the oil and gas industry, and urged leaders to slash emissions, boost climate finance, and clamp down on the fossil fuel industry – including by banning fossil fuel advertising. 

Against that background, ECO would also like to stress that unless the Dubai commitment to transition away from the fossil fuels that fire climate chaos is reflected in countries’ next NDCs, it will be as useless as sunscreen many of these past days in Bonn.

We can only imagine the anxiety of delegates facing the seemingly impossible task of explaining how their country will translate the UNFCCC word salad into 1.5°C-aligned NDCs. Fear not, dear delegates, ECO’s feeling generous today and will provide you with talking points that will make sure you’re safe from the Secretary General’s wrath. 
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This year has been deadly for those most vulnerable to climate change. Record temperatures in South Asia, floods in Brazil and Kenya, and many other extreme weather events have cost lives and destroyed livelihoods. As the climate crisis continues to escalate, vulnerable communities on the front lines urgently need support, so they can rebuild and recover from climate disasters for which they have minimal responsibility. 

At the last two COPs, developed countries raised hopes that they would lend a hand to help those affected, finally recognising that climate action means owning up to responsibility for damage caused, and supporting those affected. That momentum took us through to agreeing on the Loss and Damage Fund (LDF), a historic moment when the world stood in solidarity, and developed countries finally said: “We are in this together.”   

But at SB60, the tone has changed.

Developed countries are now refusing to include loss and damage in the New Collective Quantified Goal (NCQG).

WTF, guys?

And this time, we don’t just mean “Where’s The Finance?”

Loss and damage must be an explicit sub-goal of NCQG financing, or the hard-won LDF will remain unfunded. Sadly, ECO hears some countries say that loss and damage cannot be part of the NCQG because it is not specified under Article 9.1 of the Paris Agreement.
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Climate Action Network calls for the immediate reinstatement of the badges of Tasneem Essop, Anabella Rosemberg, and Danni Taaffe and deeply regrets the UN Climate Change Secretariat’s disproportionate response to legitimate and peaceful protest.

We stand in solidarity with and salute the courage of Tasneem and Anabella who are valued leaders in the climate movement and members of the CAN Secretariat. They staged a peaceful protest on 3 June during the opening plenary of SB60, denouncing “business as usual” as a genocide unfolds in Gaza. This was conducted wholly in their personal capacity, and not discussed in any way with CAN-International in advance. In addition, we demand immediate reinstatement of Danni Taaffe’s accreditation. She did not participate in the action but filmed it and the removal of Tasneem and Anabella from the SB venue. She was assaulted by a UN security officer, and this was recorded on video. Her debadging for merely exercising press freedom is unjustifiable.

There is profound incoherence in seeing Tasneem, Anabella, and Danni lose their accreditation to a UN conference for bringing the global community’s attention to the unfolding genocide in Gaza when UN experts have repeatedly raised the alarm on the issue.

The UNFCCC Code of Conduct states that “the UNFCCC is committed to upholding the fundamental human rights, dignity and worth of the human person.”
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Once again we are in Bonn and hearing testimonies of how heat waves, storms, and floods are ravaging the most climate-vulnerable countries. It is clear as day that we are now in adapt or go bust territory. Nonetheless, ECO dares to start its adaptation coverage on a positive note! Parties largely agree that the workshops on the development of indicators for the UAE Framework for Global Climate Resilience should be planned effectively taking all contributions into account.

So let’s learn from the GLaSS Programme and get the modalities for the UAE-Belem Work Programme sorted before we leave Bonn. Parties should establish a clear roadmap until COP30, detailing the criteria for the identification and development of indicators for  adaptation action and support. This two-year process should ensure coherence and linkage with the New Collective Quantified Goal (NCQG) on Climate Finance to be agreed at COP29. In that sense, it is especially urgent to include  indicators on the Means of Implementation (MoI) in the UAE-Belem Work Programme.

Parties must also revisit the National Adaptation Plans (NAPs), focusing on assessing progress, identifying gaps, and mobilising support. Otherwise we might find ourselves repeating the frustrating experience of SB58, where Parties could not agree on MoI and made no progress on NAPs.
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Today, the COP29 Presidency is hosting a dialogue on “Peace and Climate: Enhancing International Cooperation for Enabling Resilience to the Most Vulnerable.” This follows recent announcements that  COP29 in Baku will focus on the “advancement of the peace agenda.” With violent conflicts raging across the world, the links between peace and climate justice have become ever more pertinent. 

Military spending exacerbates the climate crisis in three significant ways:

• Firstly, an increase in military expenditure positively correlates with increased emissions, as militaries and their supply chains rely heavily on fossil fuels without any feasible prospects of the sector fully switching to renewable energy. 
• Secondly, it diverts valuable resources away from the urgent needs of climate mitigation, adaptation, and addressing loss and damage. The wealthiest nations, identified as Annex II in UN climate negotiations, allocate 30 times more to their military budgets than their provisions of climate finance to the most vulnerable countries. Similarly, lower income countries also spend significant proportions of their public finance on the military sector – to the detriment of climate adaptation and mitigation, as well as the well-being of their population.  
• Thirdly, ever-rising military spending creates a more insecure world, hampering diplomacy, trust, and cooperation, and leading to more conflicts and wars with devastating consequences for people and the planet.

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Yesterday morning climate activists boarded a gas rig in the Dutch North Sea, around 20 kilometres northwest of the German island of Borkum. The Greenpeace activists occupied the rig for over 9 hours, preventing the platform from being fixed and installed, holding banners saying ‘No new gas’ and ‘Gas Zerstört’ (‘Gas destroys’). 

‘Rich countries must lead by setting 1.5-aligned fossil fuel phase-out plans in NDCs’ was probably too long for their banners. But it’s the logical continuation, and this clearly is what ECO expects from Parties. Especially from countries like Germany and the Netherlands, who profited for decades from fossil fuel extraction that fueled the climate crisis. ECO hopes we can leave this hypocrisy behind and put the ‘transition away’ words from Dubai into action.

New gas extraction in the North Sea means collision with the North Star. The IEA has said it for years: there’s no room for new oil and gas extraction, if the world is to keep 1.5°C within reach. New research from University College London and the International Institute for Sustainable Development makes this even more evident, concluding that new fossil fuel projects are not needed to meet the world’s energy needs, under scenarios that limit global heating under 1.5°C.
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