Category: Previous Issues Articles

The week began on a high note with positive signals coming from some major emitters, they’re moving in the right direction, but all countries can go further and faster. ECO expects – and the world needs – more positive signals alongside concrete additional commitments between now and the Ban Ki-Moon Summit in September, COP20 in Lima, all the way to the March 2015 deadline.

You might be asking, what about today? ECO has been perusing the information note for this Ministerial and noticed its four objectives for the session, so here’s our take on what your role is on:

1. Motivating the Parties to do more
   ECO promises to have our cheerleaders – in custom outfits in your national colours, chanting in your native language – out for any Minister announcing new mitigation, financial commitments or actions pre-2020, in any session. This offer remains open through to the Ban Ki Moon Summit!

2. The political implications of the IPCC findings, for both mitigation and adaptation

   The results of the AR5 are crystal clear.

   All fossil fuel emissions need to be phased out and we need to start immediately if we want to remain within the lowest temperature limit of 1.5oC. It’s not just about phasing out all the bad stuff, we need to phase in the good stuff too – a 100% renewable future with energy access for all.

Even though the objective of Article 2 is to stabilise global emissions before food production is threatened, impacts are already being felt around the world. Floods have damaged wheat fields in Pakistan and rice fields in Thailand. Heat waves have seriously impacted the yields of Russian wheat and US maize.

Global food security is at threat. Small-scale farmers produce the majority of the world’s food, yet they are the most food insecure, and most vulnerable to the impacts of climate change.

Mitigation is of course essential to keep temperature below 1.5°C – but the adaptation needs of developing countries, particularly their agricultural sectors, must have a high priority too.

Developed country Parties have suggested a focus on productivity levels. But as temperatures rise and precipitation becomes increasingly unpredictable, large areas in temperate and tropical countries may become progressively unsuitable for agriculture. ECO thinks that the SBSTA’s first step is build on detailed studies, like the report recently endorsed by the World Committee on Food Security, through mandating an assessment of climate change impacts on food production.

ECO asks Parties to provide support to the conservation of plant genetic diversity, and increase the resilience of smallholder agriculture systems. This will help small scale farmers to build their adaptive capacity, and help them integrate their farming systems in the local ecosystems.
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After celebrating the good news out of the US on new EPA regulations to cut carbon pollution from power plants, ECO has taken the time to take a second look at the proposed plan.

The good news is that the plan looks like the real deal – it will lower emissions and put the US on the right path. The puzzler is why the administration is leaving the low-hanging fruit on the tree. Analyses suggest there are far more gains to be achieved – in both emissions reductions and cost savings – by fully harnessing energy efficiency measures and renewable energy resources. The U.S. power sector is already well on its way to meeting the EPA’s draft 2030 target. ECO thinks the US should aim much higher, introducing other regulations to further reduce emissions.

The EU has made no efforts to hide their personal satisfaction at projecting it will over-achieve its 20% target for 2020. According to the EU’s KP “ambition” submission, they’re on a pathway to a reduction of 22.8% on average during the second commitment period. Not forgetting that the latest numbers released just a couple of days ago confirmed that the EU has already reached a level of 19.2% below 1990 levels in 2012.

This looks great at first glance, but there’s more to it. In reality the EU isn’t offering any hard commitments to achieve additional reductions. A 30% reduction target has been, until recently, a lively political discussion in Europe even though NGOs are calling for a 40% reduction. The overachievement is not so much ‘over’ achievement as it is ‘under’ ambition.

EU cuts could be greater than projected without much more effort. There are additional national measures, as well as the Energy Efficiency Directive which isn’t yet accounted for, which together could shave off another 3% or more by 2020. In talking about additional cuts, the EU’s KP submission also tactfully notes the 1.6Gt of eligible ETS offsets without suggesting what to do about them. There are almost three-quarters of a GT in non-ETS offsets also allowed under EU rules.
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The IPCC was here in town yesterday to hand deliver its latest reports to you. Today, the UNFCCC will start formal consideration of the IPCC reports in the next round of the Structured Expert Dialogues (SED). This is part of the 2013-2015 review of the adequacy of the long-term global goal and the overall progress towards achieving it.

Ministers in Bonn should welcome the good news from the IPCC: it is still possible to limit global warming to 2C. The really big news is a clear finding that the overall “cost” to the economy for the needed changes is smaller than the rounding errors commonly found in long-term economic growth projections. It’s not just the scale of the total global investment in infrastructure that has to change dramatically; rather, it is the direction of the investment that has to change in order to decarbonise the world’s infrastructure. That means complete transformation of our energy sector and important changes to our society as a whole. Investments in renewables have to triple soon and proven fossil reserves have to be left underground.

The IPCC WGII shows that the costs of inaction are catastrophic. The risks of climate change are widespread, they concern every region and every sector.
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ECO was restless yesterday as Ministers failed to make any exciting new announcements, but this morning we woke to an inspiring rallying cry that echoed in all of the world’s languages. We’re inspired – surely leaders cannot ignore their people any longer?

Volveremos! Stand with us or steps aside!

We are people who participated in the walk out of the Warsaw Climate Conference and those who supported and united with its call for more serious climate action… We have come together to reiterate to all ‘leaders’ participating in the UN climate negotiations that they are dangerously off track in addressing the climate emergency…

We are more determined than ever to fight for the survival of our families, our communities and our peoples across the world – a survival that rests on nothing less than the fundamental transformation of a system that has generated massive impoverishment, injustices and a climate crisis that threatens all life on earth…

People are mobilising everywhere and taking to the streets in bigger numbers and increasing intensity to stand up to vested interests and fight for their future and those of the next generations…

We are back, far more strengthened in giving voice to those who are already acting with the urgency needed to avoid the worst impacts of climate change…

The global climate movement is building its strength and power in every country of the world. We call on those who claim to represent us to either act in our interests or step aside.

The KP has its fans for good reasons, like legally binding commitments, its base year and common metrics, not to mention its compli- ance regime. ECO knows that the KP is not perfect, but it’s the best we’ve got, and it has to serve as the baseline for the new regime. And Ministers, ECO must be loud and clear – we must see more ambition.

The news that virtually none of our KP Ministerial friends will be joining us is highly distressing. The KP matters, both politically and practically. The Protocol is the mechanism that demonstrated and institutionalised political leadership from developed countries. The second commitment period and a commitment to increase ambition from ALL developed countries pre-2020 was a key part of the package in Durban that resulted in the launch of the ADP.

It’s not just ECO asking for more ambition. We think the Antarctic ice sheet melt might have been a sign that Ministers should do more, or perhaps that the cacophony of voices around the IPCC fifth assessment report analysis would have spurred them into action.

So where is developed country leadership right now? ECO reviews the state of play.

Those still making it legal…

EU, here we are again: “yes, but.”
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We applaud the ADP Co-chairs’ tradition of emphasising openness and transparency as a key part of the party-driven ADP process. But now, it seems that this tradition might be under threat, with the Contact Group meetings limiting space for observers. This alone was shocking enough, but given the level of interest in these critical meetings across the world, ECO was flabbergasted to be told that “due to budget constraints” the ADP Contact Group meetings won’t be webcast.

Let’s get something clear. When a session is webcast, everyone with an internet connection and an interest can follow our work online. It’s real time transparency. When it’s webcast and made available on demand, it’s full transparency.

The Co-chairs need only look as far as the system adopted by the Technology Executive Committee, which offers convenient real time access to their sessions as well as archiving. Anyone can access them. The UNFCCC budget should ensure that these important proceedings are webcast. To get the ball rolling, ECO offers to put up the first 500 Euros. Over to you, governments.

Regular formal equity reviews of Parties’ commitments under the UNFCCC is important for an ambitious deal. We’ve run out of time to achieve a formal review of the post-2020 targets before COP21, so here is ECO’s twofold approach: 1) Parties agree to a formal equity review in the 2015 deal and 2) civil society assists in reviewing the adequacy and equity of upcoming mitigation and finance contributions.

ECO also encourages others to undertake equity reviews as we believe that different equity checks will be useful.

Join the CAN Equity Side Event today at 16.45-18.15h in BMU’s Room Solar. It might even help Parties to prepare their NDCs…