The EU ETS reform, and what does this mean for the carbon markets?
Early Thursday morning, EU institutions reached a final agreement on the reform of the bloc’s carbon market for the period 2021 to 2030. Covering around 40% of EU’s greenhouse gas emissions from the energy, industry and aviation sectors, the EU Emissions Trading System (ETS) is currently the largest cap and trade carbon market in the world. But with a notorious oversupply of pollution permits that has kept carbon prices hovering around 5-7 EUR/tCO2e for the past five years, the ETS has long been the region’s problem child. ECO remains disappointed at the new agreement.
A real reform of the system would have simultaneously slashed the enormous allowance glut, sent a strong decarbonisation signal to energy and industry, and made sure that auction revenues go to sustainable and clean technology. The success of the reform has to be judged on the delivery on all of these aspects.
It is now clear that the reform will not bring the scheme in line with the Paris Agreement climate goals or with mid-century decarbonization. However, the EU did make some small improvements with regard to the permit surplus: For the first time, some unused allowances will not be released to the market and could be cancelled, potentially leading to a reduction of 2-3 billion allowances in the long term.
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