ECO was pleased to read the International Energy Agency’s (IEA) new report on the renewable energy ambitions of 150 countries in light of the goal agreed at COP28 of tripling renewable electric capacity worldwide by 2030 from 2022 levels. Among the key findings:
Only 14 governments have quantified their domestic renewable power objectives for 2030 in their NDCs; if implemented, they would add up to a mere 12% of the tripling target, most of this from China.
Even after aggregating the data from all kinds of non-NDC domestic announcements and targets, the IEA finds we’re only on track to reach 8,000 GW of renewable energy capacity by 2030 – 3,000 GW less than the over 11,000 GW we need to stay in line with 1.5°C.
But there is some good news: actual deployment of renewables has been growing much faster than the ambition of governments (though most of this is in the OECD countries, China and India).
Governments must urgently close this gap, by making accelerated renewables deployment goals part of their next round of NDCs, enabling some level of international scientific review on their adequacy.
The IEA examination of both existing and likely new policies finds that China, Germany, the US, India, and Spain are delivering the bulk of the current action when it comes to renewables deployment; trailing behind particularly are Sub-Saharan Africa and the OPEC countries.
ECO notes that the IEA falls somewhat short on its recommendations for what governments should do both on adopting binding domestic policies to help reach the tripling goal as well as on assisting poor countries appropriately. The IEA does suggest a few financial measures, from concessional loans to government renewable uptake guarantees, but fails to even mention the need for significantly enhanced public funding from the richer countries to help poorer countries tap their renewables potential.
ECO has strongly supported the global tripling target but has called for it to be broken down to national targets in line with different capabilities and historic responsibilities. OECD countries, as a group, should unconditionally agree to grow their renewable capacity fourfold by 2030 and commit to a drastic upscaling of public funding for renewables infrastructure investments in poorer developing countries, to help move the world towards a fully renewable electricity sector by 2035. A good place to make a start on this is at the G7 leaders’ summit in Italy next week.