After 21 years of waiting and an almost doubling in growth of maritime greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions since the adoption of the Kyoto Protocol, members of the International Maritime Organisation (IMO) finally committed last month « to reduce the total annual GHG emissions by at least 50% by 2050 compared to 2008” while pursuing full decarbonisation in line with the Paris Agreement. The IMO’s submission to the Talanoa Dialogue (where’s yours, ICAO?!), is the first time the IMO and the shipping industry have bought in to serious mitigation target and formally recognised the shipping industry’s role and responsibility to help achieve the Paris temperature goals. Besides, the IMO’s 2050 target is an in-sector reduction commitment, and ECO acknowledges in-sector reductions as a crucial part of the implementation of the Paris Agreement.
Now that the self-congratulatory statements are over, it is time to get down to the hard work and agree on the emission reduction measures that will deliver the IMO’s belated “New Year’s resolution.” The IMO and its member states now need to decide not only how to cut GHGs but also how to address the impact of these cuts on the economies of developing countries, because the lion’s share of maritime emissions involve trade to, from or between them. This will require diplomatic, regulatory, economic, and technical solutions at international, regional, national, and local levels.
ECO notes that, the most important tasks still lie ahead. Firstly, the IMO target will have to be revised to be fully aligned with the Paris Agreement in light of the upcoming IPCC 1.5ºC report conclusions. This means full decarbonisation by 2050 at the latest. Secondly, investment in alternative technologies (such as hydrogen fuel-cells, ammonia, and battery-electric propulsion) must start now as it will take some time to develop the necessary safety rules and build bunkering and charging infrastructure to enable their uptake. Finally, work on zero emission technologies must be complemented with immediate operational measures (such as speed reduction, fleet investment, and retrofitting) to rein in emissions in the short term, thus preserving enough of the carbon budget and time to see zero emission fuels and propulsion technologies developed and deployed. Without action, shipping’s 1.5ºC compatible fair share carbon budget will be exhausted in under 12 years – with little time to build new zero emission vessels and retrofit older ships.
One thing is clear: It is now up to Europe and major shipping countries such as China, Japan and South Korea, and everyone with capacity, to invest in the necessary research and development, and alternative fuels technologies, and to adopt new policies incentivizing these investments. As the USA joined Brazil and Saudi Arabia in opposing the IMO commitment, it is once again up to the rest of the world. But other countries, including non-European ones, already are. Developed countries can lead the way! But in doing so, don’t miss the opportunities to transfer technologies to developing countries, as there is great potential for a diversity of solutions to come to market.
