ECO Newsletter

ECO recognizes that Pacific Island Countries (PICs) are on the frontlines of climate change, already facing impacts which pose an existential threat to their communities. This is their message to you delegates:

The Pacific deserves more than just to survive – we deserve to thrive. We are looking to you, delegates, for solidarity and the courage to act.

You can help to preserve the incredible wealth of this region’s languages which hold the stories and histories of thousands of islands, and millions of people whose culture, identity and traditional knowledge are a reflection of resilience, determination and courage in the face of the climate crisis.

These histories and cultures and our very identities are rooted in our homes, our islands and our oceans. Now, we stand to lose them all because of the current climate crisis – a crisis which we can still avert. A crisis which is causing many to leave our ancestral homes. Displacement and migration must be our last resort, and efforts to mitigate and transition to renewable energy should continue in order to minimize future impacts. However, if we are forced to move or choose to do so because of climate change, we should be able to do so safely and with dignity.
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Sitting in a recent informal consultation, ECO had an unwelcome flashback to Bible classes. The old story of Lot’s wife* looking back and being turned into a pillar of salt.

What inspired this unwelcome flashback? That would be the equally unwelcome assertion that the Review of the Warsaw International Mechanism on Loss & Damage (WIM) should be BACKWARD, not FORWARD looking, and should be constrained to just the work of the Executive Committee (ExCom).

What level of absurdness is that, you ask? Why review a body that has been in existence for six years, that was enshrined in the Paris Agreement (which, last time ECO checked, was a forward-looking agreement), without looking to the level of loss and damage that vulnerable countries will expect?

After six years in existence, it is time to assess whether the WIM is fit for purpose. Given the impacts the IPCC 1.5C report tells us are now on the horizon, this is about more than just the ExCom. This is about the Mechanism as a whole, and whether it has and CAN deliver upon its original mandate, which includes the enhancement of action and support, such as finance.

A Review that simply looks at what has been done, in order to determine if something has been achieved, is virtually a box-ticking exercise.
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ECO is still wondering about the real motives of those who would not want to give adequate attention to the 1.5°C Special Report of the IPCC. Pushing others to actively ignore the alarm bells for the planet and its people is what climate change denialists do. The suffering of men and women, boys and girls that we can hear about on World Refugee Day should be a stark reminder that we cannot ignore the potentially disastrous future billions of people and species on this planet will face. So don’t let ignorance win over humanity’s wisdom!

Climate change is directly driving displacement. Directly through extreme weather events that are destroying homes and flooding communities, as well as indirectly by exacerbating other drivers, such as increasing water stress or food insecurity that forces people to leave their homes to seek other livelihoods. But it is also true that “multiple drivers and embedded social processes influence the magnitude and pattern of livelihoods and poverty, and the changing structure of communities related to migration, displacement, and conflict”, as the IPCC report states.

The IPCC special report did not produce figures in terms of the number of people affected by displacement, partially because no specific studies were identified which looked at the difference between 1.5°C and 2°C in terms of the expected number of climate migrants.
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For the Middle East, the climate crisis is already a harsh reality. From the floods of Jeddah to the droughts and sea level rise in many Mediterranean cities. The region will face more droughts, sea level rise, heat waves, and more hot days, which will make especially children and women more vulnerable. These effects will lead to crop failure in the areas with poor natural resource management. The conflict over scarce resources will increase and lead to demographic pressures in the places people flee to. This will mean having internally displaced persons; others might seek asylum. They might be portrayed as economic migrants, but in 10 years they will be clearly classified as climate migrants. One of the biggest challenges in developing new policies will be to define such climate migrants.  

The Nile delta, in Egypt, for example, which is highly vulnerable to sea level rise, is densely populated. With a 1m rise in sea level, an estimated 4,500 km² of farmland could be flooded, displacing 6 million people.  

Internal migration has already started in the Middle East. If the climate crisis intensifies, we risk a political and armed conflict taking hold throughout the Fertile Crescent, which will probably be a lot less fertile because of climate change.
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Over 70 million people in the world now live as refugees who fled war, persecution and conflict – the highest level that the UNHCR has seen in its almost 70 years, according to their Global Trends report. It is the world’s developing regions who are hosting 84% of all refugees.

While they grapple with the refugee crisis, the unfolding climate emergency is making it worse for them as well as for the entire global community. In 2017 alone, there were over 18 million new displacements associated with disasters (such as floods and storms accounting for more than 80% of the incidents) across 135 countries and territories, according to Geneva based Internal Displacement Monitoring Centre (IDMC).

The deadly drought in Afghanistan that affected 2.2 million people, displaced more people human beings in 2018 than the war between the country’s government and the Taliban. In the last few weeks, India has faced extremely high temperatures wherein the capital city of Delhi had its highest ever June temperature of 48°C, while the city of Churu in Rajasthan state experienced 50.8°C.  More than 70%of districts in the Indian states of Maharashtra and Karnataka are hit by drought and crop failure, forcing thousands of people out of their homes and making it hard for about 8 million farmers to survive.
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A serious discussion suddenly broke out yesterday in room Addis Abeba on how to meet the ultimate objective of the Convention and prevent dangerous climate change. This under the item of the Second Periodic Review (SPR) of the long-term global goal under the Convention, where Parties started sharing concrete ideas and proposals for how to move forward with Theme 1 of the item – reviewing the adequacy of the global goal. (Theme 2 is a review of progress in getting there)

Some might say that we are hopelessly off course from a pathway anywhere near 2 degrees Celsius that it doesn’t matter much whether we aim for 1.5°C or well below 2°C or somewhere in between. But there is a lot of truth in the old adage that if you don’t know where you are going, you are unlikely to get there.

And in fact, the global goal agreed in 2015 under the Paris Agreement and the UNFCCC is ambiguous. For ECO it is clear, limiting warming to 1.5°C is the only reasonable option. What is most important – Limiting warming to 1.5°C, or well below 2°C. What about overshoot and return? How much effort should be made to limit warming to 1.5°C.
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ECO is excited to see nine non-Annex I Parties participating in the facilitative sharing of views (FSV) for their biennial update reports (BURs) and offers our congratulations to Parties for the work in developing their BURs. ECO thinks the FSV can be a great place to share lessons learned and experiences with other Parties in a constructive and welcoming environment. We look forward to hearing your presentations and Q&A sessions throughout the day.

Since ECO and other observers can’t ask questions during these workshops, we wanted to share our questions with you, to inform your discussions:

• Armenia
  • Armenia’s BUR notes that an MRV system will be established in 2019. Can you provide an update on the establishment of this system? What lessons has Armenia learned from its participation in the international consultation and analysis process that has informed the establishment of the MRV system?
• Brazil
  • Brazil’s BUR2 notes that the Modular System for Monitoring Actions and GHG Emissions Reductions (SMMARE) would be revised in 2017 to monitor mitigation and adaptation actions. Can you speak to your experience in building and evolving your MRV system and the process of revising the systems to ensure they are fit-for-purpose? How does Brazil envision the ongoing future evolution of its MRV system?

True to the motto “if it ain’t broke, don’t fix it,” ECO calls on negotiators to prevent any disruption or interference with the Adaptation Fund‘s (AF) ability to effectively fulfil its mandate. Negotiators just need to play an enabling role to ensure that the AF can continue to effectively serve the Paris Agreement, as it has since January 2019.

ECO was delighted to hear so many negotiators yesterday being very happy about the AF now serving the Paris Agreement. And of course ECO agrees with negotiators that the AF is covering a key niche in the international climate finance architecture. Its focus on people and communities most vulnerable to climate change, the direct access modality which it has pioneered, and its innovative features are only a few of its many unique characteristics. However, something is not fixed yet. The Fund still depends on thin support to continue to fulfil its unique mandate. It‘s facing the same need for life-support year by year, and depends on financial contributions from Parties to stay alive.

While some might still feel encouraged by the fact that the Fund surpassed its resource mobilisation targets last year, others are worried about its ad-hoc funding. While ECO was also happy about the many developed country Parties’ contributions to the AF, it also notes that the AF needs more than that.
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“Lights… Camera… Action!”–the second shoot of the agriculture discussions at the UNFCCC! Since 2009, Parties have struggled with what to do with agriculture. We are now in the midst of several workshops discussing adaptation, soils, nutrient use, manure management, and the critical issue of socio-economic and food security aspects of climate action in agriculture with a decision due in one and a half years, at COP26.

The Intergovernmental Science-Policy Platform on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services (IPBES) recently launched its Global Assessment that demonstrates rather dramatically that we’re on our way to extinction, along with millions of other species, unless you see the light.

In short, biodiversity and climate change are inextricably linked and our future is tied to the survival of other species.

But do not despair! There is good news. Agroecology is a transformative approach that can help save agriculture and hence the planet from destruction and provide a massive opportunity for a Just Transition. We are not dreaming: FAO and IPBES have both recently highlighted the high potential of agroecology to achieve the SDGs, the Paris Agreement goals, and the goals of the Convention on Biological Diversity. As well as to maintain and restore biodiversity. Even better news: so much work is being done on agroecology with the help of many of your own governments and other intergovernmental organizations.
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