It bears repeating: the first Global Stocktake (GST) is a report card on the progress of global climate action and a key guidance for the implementation of the Paris Agreement.
Countries have gone into this process well aware of the gaps between what is needed and what is being done with respect to all subjects on the report card, knowing how the shortfalls are compromising our global agreement and causing climate devastation around the world. But simply restating this well-known dismal reality is insufficient to meet the intended purpose of the GST.
As discussions turn to the Guidance and Ways Forward, ECO’s expectations are high. How these ‘ways forward’ are articulated could make or break the first GST. In turn, the GST outcome will make or break our ability to limit temperatures to 1.5°C.
And so ECO is very concerned how far Parties are from a consensus when it comes to putting this down on paper.
Firstly, all countries should have begun the process of determining their 2035 targets within climate plans that meet their fair shares. However, this cannot focus solely on developing and delivering upcoming NDCs for 2035. On top of that, all countries should agree to bring revised NDCs for 2030 showing increased ambition. This includes countries that have already revised their NDCs recently but nevertheless still fall short.
Lack of ambition and implementation gaps lead to the uncertainties attached to the NDC pledges. Equity and scaled-up climate finance must underpin these efforts. Developed countries should build trust in supporting these efforts globally and lead on raising ambition in their upcoming NDCs. Developed countries must also provide the means of implementation that will likewise enable developing countries to lift up ambition in their NDCs, both for the remainder of this crucial decade and for 2035. In addition, NDCs must align with national biodiversity plans (NBSAPs) under the Kunming-Montreal Global Biodiversity Framework. It is necessary that the GST reflects this.
Secondly, the GST outcome must not be an end point, but rather the beginning. This is the opportunity right now to enshrine this ‘ratchet’ in ambition and support, strengthening the equity approach across the UNFCCC process. All negotiation streams must consider the outcomes of the GST in their further conduct of work.
Lastly, the GST must provide clear guidance and support mechanisms for Parties to have all elements at hand to develop NDCs in a nationally determined manner, in accordance with the principle of Common but Differentiated Responsibilities and human rights obligations. ECO recalls the words of the Executive Secretary: “The Global Stocktake will end up being just another report unless governments and those that they represent can look at it and ultimately understand what it means to them and what they can and must do next.” Parties must know what is needed to put NDCs on a pathway to reduce emissions by 43% by 2030, and 60% by 2035.
Global pathways inform, but they do not prescribe. First and foremost: All fossil fuels must be phased out — fast, fair, forever and funded. Parties must protect 30-50% of natural carbon reservoirs. Risky and expensive distractions like carbon capture and storage have no place in this reality.
Immediate and ambitious climate action by all is what counts in addressing domestic and global inequality, and achieving sustainable development wins in developing countries. This policy is informed by science and agreed by all Parties through the IPCC approval process. Parties must not backtrack but rather build equity and fair shares directly into the GST and the actions it will promote and amplify.