The Gulf region is rich in fossil fuels, which have been the driver of its economy for decades. Fossil fuels therefore have a deep-rooted social license, and national fossil fuel companies are a source of national pride. Of course, this has contributed to climate denialism over the last three decades, despite the impacts that have heavily affected the region, from desertification and loss of biodiversity, to more frequent and intense heat waves, drought, and flash floods as well as significant impacts on agricultural yields and small farmers’ livelihoods. And these are only the tip of the iceberg, with more impacts predicted in coming decades.
Denial of the science is no longer possible for governments of the region, as awareness of the climate emergency is more deeply entrenched in the minds of the population and the impacts manifest in their lives so profoundly. Sadly, the Saudi government, which has been obstructive to climate negotiations since their onset, continues to be so. They are predicted to be the final bastion of oil production in the coming years, due to having the lowest extraction costs and “high quality” of oil, and over the last week they have reaffirmed their intent to delay the inevitable end of the era of oil as far as possible.
The moves of the Saudi government to cripple COP26 are deeply concerning. On Friday night, Saudi negotiators moved to block the negotiations taking place over the creation of the so-called “cover decision” for the final text. The cover decision is the top line message coming out of a COP that signals what the final outcome means for the world and is a vital part of any successful summit. Many countries, especially those facing existential risks, have been attempting to ensure that Glasgow’s cover decision focuses on accelerating action to keep 1.5°C alive – thus the absence of any cover decision at all would cripple that effort and critically undermine the outcome in Glasgow.
The Saudi government then blocked efforts to achieve progress on adaptation. A key pillar of the Paris Agreement, adaptation is the effort to help millions of people around the world cope with the impacts of rising temperatures. Lack of progress on adaptation would make it difficult for vulnerable countries, including the African block of nations, to embrace any final agreement, making success at COP26 less likely. Saudi negotiators are able to undermine the talks because all decisions require a consensus across all 196 countries in attendance – meaning a single nation can veto progress. There are no agreed voting rules in the UNFCCC because Saudi Arabia has been blocking them since the body was created after the 1992 Rio Earth Summit.
The push on Friday night to block a cover decision was a textbook effort to strip ambition from the final text, while the move to dilute substance on the adaptation goal was designed to ensure vulnerable countries don’t get the support they need and therefore can’t sign up to a meaningful agreement at the end of this week. The Saudi negotiators in Glasgow have also tried to block ambition via the Like-Minded Developing Countries (LMDCs) group, pushing back on the inclusion of the 1.5°C temperature goal while demanding weak baselines in the Paris Agreement rulebook negotiations.
Despite their historic dependence on fossil fuels, the Saudi government must undergo this challenging transition quickly, as the science has demonstrated that this is the only way to protect the region from the impacts of the climate emergency, a region that is warming at a significantly faster rate than the global average. The world is transitioning from fossil fuels and the Saudis seem insistent on continuing to invest heavily in them and locking in their economy and getting left behind. Instead, they should be initiating a swift, green and just transition, using their wealth of renewable energy potential, which can stimulate a vibrant economy with better jobs for a wide segment of society, based on equity and justice rather than concentration of corporate wealth.