Short Message from IPCC to the Structured Expert Dialogue, Global Stocktake and Mitigation Work Programme (and Everyone else): 1.5°C is Still Possible if Action and Ambition Get Substantially Increased

Yesterday, IPCC lead authors gave a presentation to Parties on the Working Group II contribution to the IPCC Sixth Assessment Report (AR6) , focusing on impacts, adaptation and vulnerability. The scientists delivered a grim message: human-induced climate change is causing dangerous and widespread disruption affecting the lives of billions of people, with people and ecosystems least able to cope being hit the hardest.  They gave a dire warning about the consequences of inaction with the world facing unavoidable multiple climate hazards over the next decades – even if we are able to limit temperature rise to 1.5°C. And they also made clear that even temporarily exceeding this magnitude of warming will result in additional severe impacts, some of which will be irreversible.

Tomorrow IPCC lead authors of the Working Group III report will tell Parties that it is still possible to limit temperature rise to 1.5°C and inform them about the pathways available to do this. Lest they spent the last 20 years living under a rock, Parties will not be surprised to hear these pathways require major transitions in all economic sectors, substantial reductions in the use of energy and natural resources, and the rapid phase-out of all fossil fuels.

Parties must listen well to the IPCC, as its messages should effectively inform all UNFCCC basis. In particular it must form the bedrock for the work of all three science-focused processes which clearly need to be approached in a coherent manner. 
ECO calls upon the Structured Expert Dialogue (SED) of the Second Periodic Review of the long-term global goal to accept that only the IPCC’s C1 Illustrative Mitigation Pathway, which limits warming to 1.5°C with no or limited overshoot, can ensure the achievement of the long-term goal of the Paris Agreement.

This pathway assumes that emissions are reduced on average to 31 GtCO2-eq in 2030 and 9 GtCO2-eq in 2050. One doesn’t need to be a math genius to see that this is very well below current (assessed as 59 GtCO2-eq in 2019) and projected emissions (50-53 GtCO2-eq in 2030 if all pledged action is implemented).
In addition, the C1 Illustrative Mitigation Pathway then sets the scene for the work under the Work Programme (WP) to scale up Mitigation Ambition and Implementation (« How do we get emissions to or below 31 GtCO2-eq by 2030? ») and the Global Stocktake (GST) of the Paris Agreement (« How do we get to or below 9 GtCO2-eq  by 2050? »).

All three processes are key in helping Parties ensure that all efforts are made to limit global temperature rise to 1.5°C.