Energy is conspicuously low in Bonn. While ECO wonders if the dismal quality of the coffee is a factor, the true problem is deeper: the groundbreaking energy transition package that was agreed at COP28 seems to have gone missing just six months after Dubai.
As a result, the connection between the GST and the enhancement of NDCs has been lost in transit somewhere between Dubai and Bonn. But let ECO remind you that all those long, late nights last year had a purpose.
Here’s the thing: Parties must respond to the COP28 Global Stocktake decision by stepping up their ambitions ahead of COP30. It’s time to put your policies in line with your talking points. Parties made the decision at COP28 that to deliver on 1.5ºC countries must accelerate the transition away from fossil fuels in a just and equitable manner, triple renewable energy capacity, and double energy efficiency improvements by 2030. Reflecting the principles of the Paris Agreement and the Convention, rich fossil fuel producers must act first and fastest – and crack open their wallets.
First, there can be no 1.5ºC-aligned NDC that does not reflect the need to transition away from all fossil fuels towards renewable energy and energy efficiency.
Second, a credible 1.5°C-aligned NDC is not merely words on paper, but actually reflects urgent national actions to implement this ambition. There is no place for new fossil fuel extraction for that sunset industry. As a recent IISD study showed, all demand for oil, gas, and coal within 1.5ºC pathways can be met by existing sources. New extraction just risks more climate disaster and more stranded assets.
ECO has a direct challenge for the Troika of COP Presidencies: Turn last year’s groundbreaking energy package into action. The outgoing Presidency must play a role in making sure that their ‘Consensus’ – of which they are justly proud – doesn’t fall into the Rhine and sink into oblivion, never to be seen in Baku or Belém.
And here’s a good way to start. The Troika of Presidencies must play a leadership role by ensuring that their own NDCs are faithful to the GST outcome and aligned with 1.5ºC. That means they must show how they will transition away from fossil fuels – and that begins with ending new production now.