Eco is pleased to report that Brazil has so far been uncannily tame at SB56. Be it for the lack of relevant Article 6 debates or for the uncertainty surrounding the upcoming Presidential elections in October, the fact is that Brasília seems to have given their diplomats some breathing room. Generally, Brazilian negotiators are making constructive interventions rather than playing obstruction.
Of course, there is a “but”.
The good attitude seen in Bonn is in total cognitive dissonance with what is happening at home. On the inside, the world’s 5th biggest carbon emitter is in dangerous turmoil, with sociopath-in-chief Jair Bolsonaro threatening a coup every other day. Right now, the world reacts in despair as a British journalist and a former federal indigenous protection agent have been missing in the depths of the Amazon jungle for four days – and the Bolsonaro regime loiters with the search operations. The president has called the journalistic investigation into the violation of indigenous rights, that led reporter Dom Phillips into the rainforest, “an unnecessary adventure”.
The episode illustrates the ghastly treatment given to indigenous peoples by Bolsonaro, an autocrat wannabe who’s been delivering on his promise of opening up the Amazon rainforest for business (and triggering a genocide and a carbon bomb in the process). It also highlights the risk to the world if his administration continues. The Americas’ most dangerous climate denier – who is Joe Biden’s special guest at the Summit of the Americas this week – has presided over an unprecedented three-year rise in Amazon deforestation rates and weakened Brazil’s NDC twice. If he succeeds in securing himself extra time in office, whether through democratic means or a coup, both the rainforest and the 1.5°C goal are in serious trouble.
This is why Brazil’s elections are likely the most important climate event of 2022 after the catastrophic invasion of Ukraine. At a time when governments all over the world rush to the cozy lure of fossil fuels to escape the energy crisis, it would be nice to have a big emitter back at the table with a new president and a plan to tackle runaway deforestation for a change.