ECO has already heard that implementation of climate commitments made is key to tackle the climate crisis, and builds trust among Parties. One element of implementation of Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) is advancing the legislation that underpins them.
In the EU the negotiations on key climate files of the Fit For 55 package, launched by the European Commission in July 2021, are approaching a critical moment. Decision-making in the EU can be a bit complicated, and usually the outcome depends on negotiations between the European Parliament and the European Council formed by the 27 Member States’ governments, with the European Parliament in most cases pushing for higher climate ambition.
On 8 June (tbc), the European Parliament plenary will vote on the reports for the EU Emissions Trading System (ETS), including the proposal for a new Emissions Trading System for road transport and buildings (ETS2), the Effort Sharing Regulation (ESR) and the Land Use, Land Use Change and Forestry (LULUCF) Regulation.
We are still amidst a climate and environmental emergency. Hence, the current course of the EU to further increase its climate ambition is vitally important to keep the goals of the Paris Agreement in reach and protect people from climate disaster. Particularly in light of the ongoing invasion of Ukraine by Russia and the increased urgency to accelerate the shift away from fossil fuel dependency, a strong EU climate policy framework is essential to ensure that measures considered and taken are compatible with global efforts to fight dangerous climate change.
The EU’s current emission reduction target of “at least 55%” by 2030 (compared to 1990) is insufficient to “walk the talk” that we hear from EU decision-makers when they support the 1.5°C limit. Although the increase (from the -40 % emission cuts that was agreed in 2014 before the ratification of the Paris Agreement) is an important step forward, the level of ambition is still insufficient to represent a fair share of EU efforts towards the Paris Agreement goal to limit global temperature rise to 1.5°C by the end of the century, above pre-industrial levels. The European Commission’s proposals under the Fit For 55 package align the ambition levels of the ETS, ESR and LULUCF to just about reach net emission cuts of -55% by 2030, ignoring the potential to go beyond in light of the “at least” prefix of the overall target.
Together, the Commission proposals will lead to a reduced overall EU carbon budget for the period 2021-2030. But this budget is still far too generous: it entails that EU per capita emissions would be double as high as the global average, based on what is available to emit in a scenario of 67% likelihood of achieving the 1.5°C limit of the Paris Agreement. NGOs are calling for the revision of the EU climate policies to enable the EU to achieve at least -65% overall emission reductions by 2030 compared to 1990 levels.
In order to deliver these emission cuts, ECO sees the need for the ETS to achieve at least -70% emission cuts and the ESR at least -50% emission cuts by 2030, compared to 2005 levels. To accelerate the transition towards climate neutrality and enhance natural carbon sinks, ECO is calling for setting a binding removal target in the LULUCF regulation An ambitious LULUCF target of -600Mt by 2030 with honest accounting rules is needed.
To increase overall climate ambition, the European Parliament can strengthen the ambition level of the Commission proposals of each of these files. The Parliament Environment Committee has already voted on the three files. Should these elements both be agreed by plenary, they would increase the EU’s climate ambition to around 60% overall emission cuts by 2030, compared to 1990. While this will still not bring the EU to at least -65% reductions, it is the best near-term opportunity to take the next steps to upscale ambition and revisit NDC targets, as demanded by the Glasgow Climate Pact. The Global Stocktake outcomes next year will then, according to the European Climate Law, trigger further discussions for future ambition increases.