ECO is immensely disappointed Japan’s draft INDC yesterday. Japan is only planning to cut greenhouse gas emissions by 26% by 2030 compared to 2013 levels. This is just an 18% reduction compared to 1990 levels. It is unacceptable to disguise this weak target by changing the base year from 1990 to 2013, and ignore mitigation efforts made by other countries since 1990.
Unbelievably, Japan insists that the target is in line with the long term goal of “50% reduction globally and 80% reduction in developed countries by 2050” — without further explanation.
Worse still, Japan refused to admit that an 80% reduction by 2050 was already endorsed by the government back in 2010. But an analysis seen by ECO shows this “inflated 26% target” will definitely not lead to an 80% reduction by 2050 for Japan.
Japan’s climate target stems from poor energy policy, as it assumes only 10GW wind power and 74GW solar power by 2030. These values reflect the bare minimum rather than a truly aspirational target.
At the same time, Japan’s target assumes 20-22% of total electricity will be sourced from nuclear power, despite the 2011 Fukushima disaster. This percentage cannot be fulfilled without extending the operation of old nuclear power plants to 60 years and/or building new nuclear plants. Moreover, carbon intensive coal-fired power plants are prioritised and will provide 26% more of Japan’s total energy than renewables by 2030.
Japan can achieve a target of 40-50% reduction from 1990 by 2030 without relying on nuclear power if it accelerates the deployment of renewable energy and energy efficiency.
Japan is the only G7 country that has not formally submitted its INDC yet. That is expected with Prime Minister Abe’s announcement on Japan’s revised draft INDC at next week’s G7 summit in Schloss Elmau, which should also include a reasonable explanation on its fairness and ambition.