The science is clear – the 1.5°C target is only achievable if we stop burning fossil fuels. The political reality is also clear – we’re only going to do so if we stop drilling and mining them out of the ground in the first place. Finally, the practical reality is clear – we’re only going to stop this extraction if we do so in a manner that is very widely accepted as fair.
All this we know. What we don’t know is what it means in practice, on a timeframe that is consistent with the 1.5°C goal, in a world that is starkly divided between wealthy and developing countries, and between rich and poor. Fortunately, a lot of work has already been done on the challenges of rapid extraction phase out, up to and including the equity challenges.
Many of these challenges can be described in terms of capacity and dependency, which is to say capacity to change and dependency on the revenues and jobs associated with fossil-fuel extraction. Some developing countries – South Africa is a fine example, as is India – are high-poverty countries that are highly dependent on coal. Others – including our host the UAE – struck oil a long time ago, and have become wealthy, high-capacity countries with money and resources to buffer the turbulence that will come with its phase out. There are other, poorer countries in far less enviable positions, and some of them hold fossil-fuel resources they are tempted to profit from. And very much in contrast there, are the US, Canada, Norway, Australia and the UK – five of the world’s richest countries that, despite their pledges, are together responsible for over half (51%) of the world’s planned oil and gas field developments from now until 2050.
If emissions are damn close to zero by 2050, then we’ll have a good chance of avoiding a future with unmanageable impacts. This will require that virtually all countries, developing ones as well as rich ones, are going to have to stop investing in new fossil fuel infrastructure.
How might this work? A big question, this one, but keep in mind that we only need two things – technology and cooperation. Which, as it happens, is unachievable without justice. And in the face of a problem of this magnitude, has to include a great deal of international finance and support. At this late date, this should be no great surprise. In fact, rousing calls for a fossil-fuel phase out that neglect any mention of finance and support are, at this point, just more meaningless rhetorical exhortations. And they’re likely cynical ones at that.
Obviously, there is more to say. But this is only your morning ECO. You can have the full report released just this morning by the Civil Society Equity Review under the title An Equitable Phaseout of Fossil Fuel Extraction.