Since delegates have been very busy preparing for the COP, they might have missed the latest scientific evidence that shows how far we are from meeting the temperature goal the world committed to in 2015, in Paris. Allow ECO, dear readers, to summarize the key findings of the UNFCCC Synthesis Report and the UNEP Emissions Gap Report, both released last week.
The Synthesis Report clearly states that compared to 2019 levels, by 2030 the current NDCs will reduce global emissions by only 3.6%. Yes, you read that right. It pains ECO to compare this to the 43% emissions reductions by 2030 from 2019 levels recommended by the IPCC. Why? Because current NDCs have no plan for a staggering 39% gap of emissions reductions required. Or in other words, by 2030, current NDCs can only realize 8.37% of the emissions reductions that has been recommended by IPCC from the 2019 levels. How much our politicians listen to science? 8.37%. Yep, no kidding, 8.37%. Imagine letting a country being run by someone with an approval rating of 8.37%, forget counting the fate of all of humanity.
And there’s more. The report also says that we are on track to almost exhausting the entire 1.5°C carbon budget to 2050 by 2030! For those who like details, here they are: In the context of the carbon budget consistent with 50% likelihood of limiting warming to 1.5°C (500 Gt CO2), cumulative CO2 emissions in 2020–2030, based on the latest NDCs, would likely use up 86% of the remaining carbon budget, leaving 14% for the next 20 years. Do you really want to leave this problem for future generations to try to sort out? (if they even make it, of course…)
The UNEP Emissions Gap report reinforces these grim statistics and puts forward a clear message: only an urgent system-wide transformation can avoid climate disaster. We missed the time to do an “incremental change”, we need a whole-of-economy transformation and we needed it ”yesterday”. In other words, they are plainly saying that we have failed to take the opportunity presented for a smooth transition. Rough ride ahead.
Dear delegates, we heard that you aim to have text on the Mitigation Work Programme (MWP) ready by Friday, the 11th. Oh wait! Friday is also Decarbonization day and, as Sigmund Freud said, there are no coincidences. ECO hopes that by Friday you can come up with a MWP that lasts through 2030 and includes a sectoral approach to decarbonization through which we can deliver on a Just Energy Transformation that will keep 1.5°C within reach. Such a programme should also create the right technical and financial incentives for countries to sharply reduce emissions within this decade and avoid ruining the future of our children and grandchildren.