On Sunday, the Presidency released a first draft of the proposed elements for the Cover Decision to be adopted at the end of the week. These decisions will provide the main political signal coming out of Glasgow and will therefore be essential in assessing whether the COP ends with a vision or a cover-up. This COP had a very clear mandate to take stock of the ambition gaps and deliver a credible pathway to address them. Ahead of the intensive consultations scheduled this week; ECO is pleased to share the following checklist of critical elements for these decisions:
Science as the starting point: A credible COP outcome requires taking the science seriously, particularly as the IPCC is delivering its Sixth Assessment Report.
- Deletion of the reckless, scientifically discredited and outdated reference to 2ºC
- Reference to the importance of cumulative emissions are what counts to keeping warming below 1.5ºC
- Recognition of the essential role of ecosystem protection and restoration in achieving a 1.5ºC pathway alongside, not instead of, rapid fossil fuel phase-out.
Most striking missing element: Fossil Fuels – Coal, gas and oil are the elephant in the room, and must finally be acknowledged; Parties cannot deliver the requisite ambition without ending production and support for fossil fuels.
- Acknowledgement of the May 2021 IEA Net Zero report
- Reference to the end of fossil fuel subsidies
- Commitment to ending public and private finance for fossil fuels
- Commitment to coal, oil and gas phase-out and managed decline in line with science and equity
- Explicit reference to methane in the context of non-CO2 gases
Action-oriented short term pathway: Taking the mitigation ambition gap seriously requires a credible pathway to ratchet up ambition in the next couple of years – not merely every five years – building on and complementing the NDCs’ cycles
- Strengthened language on the need to raise ambition annually until the mitigation gap is filled
- Commitment to revise NDCs to be in line with 1.5ºC
Credible Long Term Strategies: Countries must commit to actions aimed at achieving real zero and positive co-benefits for people and planet and reject reliance on offsets and illusory, future techno-fixes.
- Reference to the IPCC 1.5ºC report and focus on sustainability and co-benefits
- Commitment to real zero – zeroing out fossil fuel emissions and deforestation – instead of references to “net” zero and false solutions
Framing climate action: Only a holistic understanding of the relationship between humankind and nature will deliver a truly sustainable and inclusive transition.
- Recognition of the interconnectivity between nature and human societies
- Acknowledgement of the recognition by the UN of the right of all to a healthy environment and the creation of a UN Special Rapporteur on Human Rights and Climate Change
Loss and Damage Finance: Industrialised countries should take responsibility for the havoc caused by the decades of climate inaction by prioritizing and making real progress towards delivering adequate loss and damage finance.
- Recognition of the imperative for developed countries to provide new, additional and needs-based finance to address loss and damage and the need for a system to deliver it to vulnerable developing countries
- Commitment to commission an annual loss & damage finance gap report to take stock of national financial needs to address loss & damage
Adaptation as a co-equal pillar of climate action: Anemic commitment to adaptation finance must be rectified and support should be provided in a manner that truly benefits those communities most exposed to climate harms.
- Commitment by developed countries to gradually increase the share of climate finance in support of adaptation in the context of the US$100 billion goal to double and reach $50b by 2025 at the latest
- Recognition of the importance of the Principles for locally-led and gender responsive adaptation
- Operationalisation of the Global Goal on Adaptation.
Delivering on finance: Developed countries need a real delivery plan on the $100b goal and to leverage the trillions needed to address the climate crisis.
- Commitment to reach $50b per year in aggregate adaptation finance before 2025
- Substantial increase in the provision of grant financing, especially for adaptation and for LDCs and SIDS
- Inclusive and transparent process for setting a science- and needs-based new collective finance goal by latest 2024, with clear milestones and intermediate targets for scaling up beyond $100b per year after 2025, and sub-goals for mitigation, adaptation and Loss & Damage
Whether the cover decisions deliver concrete actions and processes to fix these gaps will play a key role to understand if the COP ends with a breakthrough in addressing the climate crisis, or turns into the biggest fiasco in over a decade.