It is bloody late for deep emissions reductions to stay on a 1.5°C trajectory. Nevertheless, this is still needed and the IPCC had made an effort this summer to quantify how to do so. In its first report of the 6th assessment cycle, focusing on the physical facts of where we stand today, the results are really sobering.
Atmospheric CO2 concentrations and the rate of ocean surface water acidification, resulting mainly from burning fossil fuels over the past two hundred years, are the highest they have been in at least two million years. Indeed, some indicate the highest in the last 10 million years. The last time CO2 concentrations were this high, global temperatures were at least 2.5°C warmer and sea levels several meters higher. Such data clearly indicates the dangerous carbon legacy humankind is injecting into the atmosphere day by day. But the full impacts of this legacy will only be revealed in the future, because of the delayed response of the global climate and earth systems.
The world must immediately start to phase out fossil fuels; and protect and restore carbon in natural ecosystems in this decade to limit the increase of atmospheric CO2, the key driver for global warming. Otherwise any real net-zero targets by mid-century are not achievable in a credible and sustainable way. Nor, even if they were achieved, would they keep warming below 1.5°C.
Even with the deep fossil fuel reduction pathway assessed by the IPCC that results in an approximate 1.4°C of warming by the end of the century, the world might overshoot 1.5°C in about 20 years before returning thereafter. That is why adaptation, resilience building and Loss & Damage provisions for the poor and vulnerable communities are crucial.
The IPCC explored the risks of “low probability” and “high impact” events that will increase exponentially with future warming. What once was a centurial event like extreme flooding becomes an annual event. And sea level rise might turn out to be much higher than anticipated today. Super-fast deglaciation of major parts of Greenland and North-West Antarctica, skyrocketing sea level rise, die-off of the Amazon forest and full degradation of warm water coral reefs. These are those dreadful threats of irreversible or run-away climate change also known as “Tipping Points” governments shall avoid under all circumstances.
The IPCC also alerts us that net zero by mid-century is not good enough for 2100. For a 1.4°C pathway as outlined by the IPCC in its strongest scenario the world needs to not only virtually eliminate GHG emissions, but also reduce atmospheric CO2 concentrations significantly. ECO urges that carbon dioxide removal should happen primarily through the protection and restoration of ecosystems and sustainable forest, agricultural and land management. ECO thinks we should have begun yesterday.
In February next year, ECO will observe and provide input as appropriate to the Second IPCC Working Group’s report, “Adaptation, Impacts, Vulnerability” final conclusions, the Summary for Policymakers (SPM). ECO has already started to identify the key issues that should be at the forefront of the report. These include, but are not limited to, addressing the “limits to adaptation”, which the IPCC had done several times recently, laying out the reasons why Loss and Damage is an appropriate and equitable response mechanism to disasters and analysing what the tipping points could be for global and regional ecosystems. The IPCC must identify more clearly the amount of investments needed in the next decades for general adaptation to irreversible and unexpected changes such as exponential sea level rise from polar deglaciation, soil erosion from droughts, health impacts by heatwaves etc. and to compare this price tag against the societal, including financial, costs of doing nothing.
ECO calls on the IPCC to be bold and outspoken on the necessity of taking proactive measures to address the already unavoidable impacts of climate change in the coming decades, and the resultant adaptation needs. In that context, food security issues and climate migration must be brought forward. The IPCC must also be clear about the impact of climate change on the world’s ecosystems and biodiversity, which are already critically threatened by human activities and intrusion. We are currently experiencing the highest rate of species extinction in a millennia, over and above climate impacts.
ECO recommends that the IPCC assesses the potentials of system Tipping Points under comparably low but continued temperature rises of about 1° – 2°C. Some system components like ice sheets, the monsoon dynamics and ecosystems like corals are highly vulnerable to very small temperature changes.
Last but not the least, the IPCC should clearly define the linkages between climate change, inequality and the need for, and obligation to provide, community resilience building and training for frontline communities.
In March, the IPCC will finalise its last Working Group 3 report focusing on mitigation. ECO strongly endorses all approaches that prioritise deep and early emissions reductions through sustainable technologies and policies, such as solar, geothermal and wind energy, supportive infrastructure and cross-economy energy efficiency. ECO also supports the need for the report to examine potential means and the plethora of benefits to eradicate energy poverty and deadly air pollution for millions of people in the Global South by 2030 as agreed in the SDGs, while providing adequate access to clean energy sources to the “energy poor” of developing nations. All of these points must be examined in the context of the national and regional frameworks for a Just Transition. In all sectors a great transformation is necessary to fully implement the Paris Agreement – incremental changes are not enough. ECO calls on the IPCC to be very critical in evaluating the potential of large-scale carbon dioxide removals such as Air Capture and Bioenergy CCS and to maintain its critical position on the very unsustainable use of nuclear power.
In the summer of 2022, the IPCC will combine all three reports into one “Synthesis Report” that, hopefully, will be the bedrock for a strong, convincing, appealing Global Stocktake by the UNFCCC.
To conclude, ECO reiterates its strong endorsement of the science-based paradigm whose precondition is the rapid phase out of fossil fuels and speedy phase in of renewables and large scale ecosystem protection and restoration, while leveraging significant means for adaptation and Loss & Damage.