What would you do with a partner that time and again broke their promises to you? After a while, a bad relationship must end. But what if you couldn’t leave? What if your life (or, in this case, all life on Earth) depended on making it work? This is where we stand with countries that are not fulfilling their promises to the Paris Agreement.
Some countries haven’t submitted new or updated NDCs in line with the 2020 ratchet-up cycle. On the heartbreakers list, we have Japan and Australia, who simply re-submitted their 2015 NDCs with the same goal. Others, like COP27 host Egypt, haven’t even bothered to re-submit. ECO has hope for Egypt, which finally promised a new NDC, and for Australia following its recent elections and renewed vows. But actions speak louder than words, matey! We’ll believe it when we see that beautiful piece of paper.
Those are the bad, but then there are the ugly. They not only break their promises, they lie to your face. They say they are being more ambitious as the Paris Agreement asked them to be, but in fact they are back-sliding and planning to do less than they promised seven years ago in their iNDCs. ECO’s looking at you, Mexico and Brazil.
In 2020 Mexico and Brazil presented NDCs with the same 2015 percentage targets, but methodological changes in the estimate of baseline year emissions means that 2030 carbon levels will be higher under the new NDCs. Mexico’s creative accounting means 14 MtCO2eq. more. For Brazil, it’s a staggering 409 MtCO2eq. more. No wonder civil society has taken both governments to court! In Mexico, the NDC was suspended. In Brazil, the lawsuit is ongoing, but public pressure forced the government to present a new NDC in 2022 that increased the percentage of emissions cuts, but still promises to emit 73 MtCO2eq. more than it had promised in 2015. Manipulating baselines to deceive others can be a systemic risk for the Paris Agreement and should be reported to the Compliance Committee.
In Bonn this week, Climate Action Tracker showed that even if all the climate promises, official and unofficial, made by all countries are fully met, the world is still heading towards over 2°C of warming. This toxic relationship is unsustainable. It’s past time for these heartbreakers to show the Paris Agreement a lot more love.