INDCs and the Path to 2030

With the majority, approximately 150, of climate plans now on the table, the time is ripe for a first assessment of these joint efforts. Morocco and the European Commission started a debate on the aggregate effort of the submitted proposals at their INDC Forum in Rabat.

ECO feels that Paris is on track for meeting its first objective: to unite countries in climate action with submitted INDCs covering marathon 85% of global emissions. This is an unprecedented moment and one Parties should be congratulated for! 

However, there is still a massive gap between the level of effort proposed in the INDCs and the level of action required to keep warming below 1.5°C. Though the INDCs start bending the curve, they still leave the world on track for dangerous levels of warming.

Scientists at the INDC Forum translated this gap in ambition into the need to include clear short- and long-term signals in the Paris agreement itself. There was a clear warning that transitioning towards the 2°C goal without an increase in ambition between now and 2030 would require rapid and abrupt energy system changes.

The meeting also discussed the lessons learned from this round of INDC submissions, looking both towards Paris and beyond.  Ensuring adequate capacity in developing countries to undertake and implement the INDCs is essential, along with investing in public debates about what is at stake. Additional policies that could assist in closing the gap such as the phase-out of fossil fuel subsidies and adequate carbon prices as supportive tools were also identified alongside requests for serious technology cooperation, including joint R&D.

ECO believes the Paris Ambition Mechanism (PAM) can and must ensure rising ambition over time. The PAM must combine regular aggregate scientific and individual equity assessments starting in 2018 with a robust MRV framework and a tool to match conditional INDCs with the necessary support.